Jobs lost despite government’s strategy to fight COVID-19 outbreak not being strong enough to substantially stem spread of virus, party leader says.
Central bank seen as set to opt for more easing but all eyes are on floundering lira. If it falls much further it could limit room for policy support.
Some auto sales growth seen at the start of March may be the last recorded for quite some time.
Analyst warns, meanwhile, that Turkish banks are more vulnerable in pandemic emergency than they were in 2018 lira crisis.
Ekrem Imamoglu steps up calls for Turkish president Erdogan to announce lockdown. Says he’s anxious “politics” between rival camps are hindering response to pandemic badly needed by metropolis of 16 million.
Analyst says he anticipates further 10% decline by end of April.
Sector pushed back into contraction in “bitter blow” to recovering firms. Output and new orders slowed sharply. Lira weakness, supply shortages pushing up input prices.
Development bank looks at the resilience of states in the region to falling commodity prices, value chain disruption, declines in tourism and domestic disruption.
Opposition research shows worrying price movements in economy roiled by pandemic. Issues both old and new now combining, prompting warnings of possible supply scarcities ahead.
Government coffers seen as empty after currency crisis fight. “Fearful of joining the army of unemployed, many workers have had no choice but to brave the virus danger,” says economist.
Lots of focus on central bank’s dwindling FX reserves. Erdogan urges citizens to “keep the wheels turning”. Officials bring in more credit-fuelling.
Hard currency reserves back in focus. Net portfolio outflows since December 20 stacked up to $6bn.
With academics warning Turkey may face pandemic “catastrophe”, local corporate titans suggest it might be better for country to bite bullet and go for short, sharp shock rather than long, drawn-out battle.
No one knows if there will be a summer tourism season at all in 2020, which is bad news for the countries that generate around a quarter of their GDP from the sector.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) released updated forecasts for economic growth this year for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries that show a sharp slowdown in 2020 and all except Turkey will return negative results.
Equity and bond markets have been rocked by record volumes of outflows since the end of February in one of the biggest sell offs ever, but the pace of selling seems to be slowing in the last few days, said the Institute of International Finance (IIF)
Burden seen as Turkey’s biggest headache in wake of currency crisis. Figures come amid pandemic as analysts say idea EMs will face ‘sudden stop’ in capital flows is starting to gain traction.
Economic consultancy Capital Economics has slashed its growth forecast for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to a 2% y/y contractions from the previous 2.3% expansion in 2020, as a result of the coronavirus.
“If the necessary measures are not taken, Turkey will be like Italy or Spain, where the daily death toll is in the hundreds,” says Turkish professor.
Finance minister accused of just “dropping in from outer space” for sticking to his targets. Lira continues to crumble as analysts slash growth forecasts.