Turkey denies Turkish F-16 jet shot down Armenian plane over Armenia

bne IntelIiNews September 29, 2020

Armenians claim incident in showdown with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh occurred in its airspace.

Iran denies allowing passage of weapons into Armenia after video emerges on social media

bne IntelIiNews September 29, 2020

Tehran officially neutral in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but Iranians known to be unhappy at Azerbaijan’s relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Turkish lira finds another all-time low with Erdogan’s Caucasus adventurism no help at all

bne IntelIiNews September 28, 2020

Banking regulator takes another step to put a brake on massive lending that is worsening external imbalances. Rates are not high enough to attract carry-traders so the lira is set to further deteriorate, says one analyst.

Armenia accuses Turkey of sending in direct military support for Azerbaijan including F-16s

bne IntelIiNews September 28, 2020

Fierce and bloody fighting centred on Nagorno-Karabakh enclave continues to rage. Baku denies Ankara has also commandeered Syrian militiamen to fight on its side.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Mystery on the bourse as traders ask "Who bought the banks?"

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 27, 2020

Finding some sure footing on the Turkish stock exchange is far easier said than done with officials up to no good with neverending perception management.

COMMENT: Don’t disregard potential for Armenia and Azerbaijan’s war to spiral into something much bigger

bne IntelIiNews September 27, 2020

Should Turkey militarily enter the conflict on Baku’s side and Russia come to the armed defence of Yerevan, things could get very scary indeed.

Major fighting erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh

bne IntelIiNews September 27, 2020

Both sides accuse each other of starting clash. Russia calls for immediate ceasefire. Turkey pledges to stand by Azerbaijan.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Follow the (hot) money

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 25, 2020

As banking regulator follows surprise rate hike with relaxation of lenders’ FX swap limits, all the signs are that the Erdogan administration is in the market for a shot in the arm that, ultimately, can only do more damage.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Surprise rate hike not actually a rate hike?

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 24, 2020

“It’s more of a ‘catch-up’” says one analyst. New benchmark rate of 10.25% still below average cost of funding.

Balkan route nations least tolerant of migration

bne IntelliNews September 24, 2020

Acceptance of migrants has declined globally, and the nations of the Western Balkans that bore the brunt of the 2015-2016 migration crisis are now the least tolerant in the world, a new Gallup poll shows.

US ambassador warns Turkey over $2.3bn of unpaid debts owed to pharma companies

bne IntelIiNews September 23, 2020

Debts have ballooned from $230mn a year ago. Payment not forthcoming despite US commerce secretary raising issue with president Erdogan.

Capital forecasts 8 Turkish lira to dollar by year’s end

bne IntelIiNews September 23, 2020

Updates previous expectation of 7.50. As fears mount of currency crisis, IIF notes “historically low non-resident holdings of lira-denominated assets—with only $20.9bn in stocks and $5.8bn in bonds remaining”.

Turkish Medical Association ‘dangerous as coronavirus’ says Erdogan’s ultra-nationalist ally in row over infection figures

bne IntelIiNews September 22, 2020

MHP says body should be shut down after doctors repeat claims that Turkey’s official coronavirus data bear no relation to situation on the ground.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Moody’s warns of autumn peril

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 22, 2020

Ratings agency wary of possible moratorium on FX payments, capital controls and disorderly exchange rate adjustment. But isn’t this all too little, too late from its analysts? The warning signs have been there for years.

International bond investors are selling off local EM debt in all but the best markets

Ben Aris in Berlin September 21, 2020

Emerging markets capital markets have been through a revolution in the last decade, but the coronavirus pandemic and rising political and economic risks in some markets have seen these investors turn tail and flee.

Disasters in the making

Will Conroy in Prague September 19, 2020

Iran, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan among countries ranked most vulnerable by inaugural edition of Ecological Threat Register.

Foreign investors drop net $30mn of Borsa Istanbul shares

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 18, 2020

“Sad to see Turkey's weight in MSCI Emerging Markets index hitting all time low at 0.3%,” remarks observer. Regulator cuts “direct market access” of UBS’ London branch to stock exchange. Garanti BBVA's Spanish parent at lowest level since 1995.

Turkey’s first 'flying car' prototype completes short test flight

bne IntelIiNews September 17, 2020

The "Cezeri" flew up to 33 feet in the air before landing.

Foreign investors' share in Turkey’s sovereign eurobonds falls south of 50%

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 17, 2020

Day also sees Turkish lira slump to latest all-time low.

Pentagon ‘has no plans to withdraw’ from Incirlik nuclear airbase in Turkey

bne IntelIiNews September 17, 2020

Statement comes after Republican senator said US was considering shifting forces to Crete given that the path Turkish president Erdogan is on “is not good”.