TURKEY INSIGHT: Consumer hump, factory slump

Akin Nazli in Belgrade August 16, 2019

Turkish industrial production contracts for 10th straight month. Worst run since financial crisis. Government, meanwhile, continues to work the credit pumps. “Central bank playing with fire,” says one analyst.

Europe turning Turkey into top “dumping ground” for plastic waste

bne IntelliNews August 15, 2019

Plastic waste imports arriving in country soar tenfold to over 40,000 tonnes/month following China’s move to ban shipments.

ING Bank Turkey renews syndicated loan ahead of Turkish lenders’ refinancing season

Akin Nazli in Belgrade August 15, 2019

All-in cost of €190mn tranche is Euribor+2.40%, $96mn tranche fixed at Libor+2.50%. Rollover ratio stands at 49%.

Turkish Airlines passenger decline ugly symptom of consumer crunch in Turkey

bne IntelliNews August 14, 2019

Flagship carrier reports 4.8% July fall in number of people flying, with 11% drop in domestic traffic despite tourism high season.

First annual current account surplus since 2002 for Turkey but size of monthly deficit a surprise

Akin Nazli in Belgrade August 12, 2019

Fall in imports after currency crisis rather than export strength eliminated gap. Repeated credit expansions now undoing progress.

ISTANBUL BLOG: Erdogan pulls off coup inside the central bank

Akin Nazli in Belgrade August 10, 2019

Strongman rips guts out of regulator too slow for his liking in providing cheap money. If he wasn’t entirely at monetary helm before, he is now. But do global investors particularly care?

Turkey’s Tupras reports 15% y/y decline in Q2 profit

Akin Nazli in Belgrade August 8, 2019

Q2 profit significantly above market average expectation mainly thanks to hefty deferred tax gain recorded by oil refiner.

Largest Turkish retailer BIM posts 18% y/y profit growth in Q2

Akin Nazli in Belgrade August 7, 2019

Average market forecast was for TRY306mn, but company was able to record TRY347mn and meet expectations for 31% growth in revenues.

Turkey’s Teflon lira rises and rises but dollarisation rates show Turks not yet buying into recovery

bne IntelliNews August 6, 2019

Many internal and external factors help explain the currency’s recovery but jittery investors still see vulnerabilities everywhere.

CEE monthly bond wrap: Summer doldrums afflict Russian bond issue, but CE raises large amounts

Ben Aris in Berlin August 5, 2019

The emerging markets (EM) bond markets are well into their summer slowdown. There were virtually no bond issues from Russia at all in July but Central Europe saw $6.4bn of issues

TURKEY INSIGHT: Official inflation hops up to 16.65% but that’s not enough to blow Erdogan’s plan off course

Akin Nazli in Belgrade August 5, 2019

Central bank is still no doubt working on another chunky rate cut.

Turkish auto sales crash 66% in July after tax cuts expire

bne IntelliNews August 4, 2019

Automakers hooked on fiscal generosity now in for a rough second half if no more government assistance is forthcoming.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Awesome, surreal!

Akin Nazli in Belgrade August 1, 2019

Top officials say it’s all starting to come together for the Turkish economy. So why are some observers sniggering at the back?

“Biggest step in Turkish censorship history” as TV watchdog gets sweeping oversight over all online content

bne IntelliNews August 1, 2019

Netflix and local streaming platforms among those affected, while critics warn all internet media producing opposition news will feel impact.

Turkish lender Garanti’s Q2 profit comes in flat at TRY1.91bn

Akin Nazli in Belgrade July 31, 2019

Spanish lender BBVA, which owns just short of half of the bank, says Turkey’s political instability and recession dented its group profitability.

Higher tax takes toll on Turkish white goods maker Arcelik but net profit up 52%

Akin Nazli in Belgrade July 30, 2019

Trade association pushing for permanent fiscal help for sector suffering amid misery wrought on consumers by Turkey’s economic woes. Exports helping to keep companies afloat.

Germany’s Union, US-based Pzena shifting investments from Turkish lenders to exporters on Borsa Istanbul

Akin Nazli in Belgrade July 29, 2019

But this is Turkey—the economic fundamentals do not explain what is before the market’s eyes.

ISTANBUL BLOG: Turkish central bank chops policy rate (for “central bank” read “Erdogan”)

Akin Nazli in Belgrade July 25, 2019

Lira holds steady after easing decision with global factors in its favour but no-one in their right mind should believe the government’s economic logic or data anymore.

EIB freezes new lending linked to Turkish government as part of EU’s Cyprus drilling row response

bne IntelliNews July 24, 2019

Move serves as something of a ‘shot across the bows’ of Turkey. Bank is country’s biggest single lender.

Turkey ‘could kick US out of Incirlik, Kurecik military bases in S-400 row’

bne IntelliNews July 24, 2019

Turkish foreign minister tells news channel “it’s not a bluff’.