ASH: Turkey playing a delicate balancing act between Ukraine, Russia and NATO

Timothy Ash Senior Sovereign Strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London June 28, 2022

Turks are rightly proud of the success of Bayraktar drones in the conflict in Ukraine and Ukraine was grateful, but now they are not so sure as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plays both side of the fence.

HESS: West wins the default battle but the economic war must go on

Maximilian Hess in London June 27, 2022

The Russian Federation has defaulted on its debts, failing to pay interest on a pair of Eurobonds within their 30-day grace period that ended on 26 June – another blow struck against Russia in an escalating economic war.

NEMETHY: Is the US Fed playing with the wrong levers?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors June 27, 2022

Many economists are of the opinion that the US Fed has had a pretty abysmal track record in forecasting inflation during past years. It first deliberately changed policy to allow inflation to run hot at higher than 2%, but now it's too high.

Ukraine has been clear that it needs more weapons from the West. So, what’s the holdup?

Meduza June 24, 2022

On June 13, Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak named the specific amount of Western weapon supplies Ukraine needs in order to “end the war” and “kick Russia out of Ukraine”: 1,000 155-mm howitzers and more.

COMMENT: Why replenished ties between Uzbekistan and Turkey suit both Tashkent and Ankara

Fuad Shahbazov June 23, 2022

For the Uzbeks, the strategic relationship helps with the balancing act between the big powers. For the Turks, it builds regional influence in line with the pan-Turkic agenda.

Analyst says West should form ‘alliance of convenience’ with ‘unsavoury Erdogan’

bne IntelIiNews June 22, 2022

Turkish leader might be won round with economic lifeline that would persuade him to abandon Moscow, says Maximilian Hess.

COMMENT: Georgia drops out of the Trio – why did this happen?

Ghia Nodia in Tbilisi June 21, 2022

Georgia can become an EU candidate country, but not with Georgian Dream in power.

Book review | China’s “detached” power

Maximilian Hess for EurasiaNet June 21, 2022

A new book exposes the hollowness of many Western assumptions about China’s role in Central Asia.

COMMENT: Ukraine’s Eurobonds – pros and cons of restructuring

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk head of macro research at ICU in Kyiv June 20, 2022

The Ukrainian economy has been badly hit by the war and is operating in an extremely challenging environment. Budget revenues have plummeted while expenditures stay elevated. Will the government be forced to restructure its debt again?

COMMENT: Fiscal challenge for Azerbaijan is to not spend the oil price boom

Elmir Mukhtarov June 20, 2022

Counter-cyclical fiscal policy needed. Among other things, more modest budget spending would help country combat soaring inflation.

COMMENT: Towards sustainable, safe and smart roads in the Western Balkans

Matteo Rivellini of EIB Global June 17, 2022

The lack of adequate road infrastructure, as well as road maintenance, has been a persistent impediment to growth in the Western Balkans, but infrastructure bottlenecks are now being addressed.

ASH: Welcome to the new age of inflation

Timothy Ash Senior Sovereign Strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London June 17, 2022

The debate around inflation is centre-stage at present, with headline and PPI inflation soaring globally in response to a range of factors but including climate change/transition and Covid-related supply disruptions.

COMMENT: How international supply chains are contending with the war in Ukraine

bne IntelliNews June 15, 2022

When Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, international supply chains were still fragile after the massive impact of COVID-19. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not causing quite the same pain, but its effects are being felt around the world.

COMMENT: Uzbekistan’s constitutional reforms are for the people

Odiljon Tojiev Deputy Speaker of Uzbekistan’s parliament in Tashkent June 14, 2022

Every modern constitution claims to speak for the public. “We the People,” the US Constitution famously begins. Uzbekistan’s own Soviet era constitution, passed in 1978, declared grandly that “all power” belonged to the people. It didn’t.

NEMETHY: The world continues to hurtle towards recession and potentially financial crisis

Les Nemethy June 14, 2022

There is a widespread feeling of ‘business as usual’. There is very little sense of impending doom. This confidence is misplaced.

ASH: Ukraine should not have to pay for this war

Timothy Ash Senior Sovereign Strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London June 13, 2022

Ukrainians are showing remarkable bravery in defending not only their own country, but our values. But Western financial support is largely credits, not grants. If they are fighting on our behalf, should they also pay for a war they didn’t start?

FPRI BMB Ukraine: A cultural break

FPRI BMB Ukraine June 13, 2022

“Everything that orc troops celebrate will disappear from the foreign literature programme,” declared Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Education and Science Andriy Vitrenko on June 7, announcing planned changes to the school curriculum in Ukraine.

DON: Russia may not be fighting for ground but for a psychological tipping point in the Donbas

Gav Don June 12, 2022

Ukrainian forces have so far successfully held open the jaws of the trap which Russia has been trying to close around their rear from north and south of the deep salient that stretches from Slovyansk in the west to Severodonetsk in the east.

FPRI BMB Ukraine: the cost of reconstruction

FPRI BMB Ukraine June 8, 2022

With Russia’s war entering its fourth month, Ukraine increasingly finds itself under almost unbearable financial and economic pressure. According to a study from the Kyiv School of Economics, Russia is causing $4.5bn worth of damage every week.

FPRI BMB Ukraine: the cost of war

FPRI BMB Ukraine June 8, 2022

Speaking at the Financial University on May 27, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia needed “huge financial resources” for the war in Ukraine. Siluanov did not give a figure, but initial budget data gives some clues.