COMMENT: Did ballot box fraud deliver Erdogan his election win?

bne IntelIiNews June 6, 2023

The strongman’s comfortable victory despite his wrecking of Turkey’s economy defied logic. But what if there is one piece of logic that's not been amply considered?

CENUSA: EU anti-corruption sanctions: a useful tool for eastward enlargement

Denis Cenusa in Germany May 30, 2023

European sanctions go through a process of continuous maturation and updating, adapting to current geopolitical sensitivities. European actors are accelerating efforts to adopt the eleventh sanctions package.

NEMETHY: Small US banks and commercial real estate – a doom loop?

Ben Aris in Berlin May 30, 2023

There is the possibility of a doom loop between small US banks and commercial real estate.

How an eleventh hour promise showed the game was up for Turkey’s Kilicdaroglu

Michael Daventry May 29, 2023

Detractors have long argued he was the wrong man to take the fight to Erdogan, but he’s yet to hint that he’ll quit as leader of the opposition following the weekend election defeat.

THE VIEW FROM MITTELEUROPA: Turkish result shows that 'all for one and one for all' is rarely the best tactic to bring down a strongman

Marcus How of ViennEast Consulting in Vienna May 29, 2023

The failure of the Nation Alliance under optimal conditions shows that 'big tent' coalitions under a single list often do not succeed in extending the opposition's reach.

KABANOVSKY: Where Nazis dare – missing the trees for the forest in Belgorod

Alexander Kabanovsky in Berlin May 27, 2023

Significant developments are unfolding in Russia. On May 22, an unexpected yet strategic incursion into the Belgorod Oblast was orchestrated by the Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL) and the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC).

ING: Turkey no change in central bank’s policy approach

Ben Aris in Berlin May 26, 2023

The Central Bank of Turkey kept its policy rate flat at the May meeting and concluded that the current rate is adequate to support the recovery from February's earthquakes. It did not offer any signals about a policy change ahead.

COMMENT: The diamond industry is in crisis and Botswana is going rogue!

Richard Chetwode in London May 25, 2023

Last year, the ‘Knot’, the highly rated American wedding magazine, asked 12,000 newly wed couples whether they had chosen a natural or a lab-grown diamond for their engagement ring? A third went for industrial stones.

OPINION: Azerbaijan’s energy diplomacy pivots to the Balkans

Fuad Shahbazov in Durham May 23, 2023

Azerbaijan can’t fully substitute for Russian gas at the pan-European level, but it can play a crucial role in promoting the energy security of individual states.

OPINION: Romania's fast-growing foreign debt

Alexandru M. Tănase and Mihai Radoi May 23, 2023

It is high time to scrutinise the sustainability of Romania’s foreign debt, which has reached over €154bn and close to 60% of the country’s GDP.

DON: Janet Yellen is relaxed about de-dollarisation, but is her calm justified? The numbers suggest not.

Gav Don May 19, 2023

Countries outside the US/UK/Europe bloc are leaving the dollar-based trade community at a rate which has begun to alarm US geopolitical strategists, and neocons in particular.

COMMENT: Conspiracy or bad analysis? Turkey observers still scratching heads over how Erdogan won vote

bne IntelIiNews May 17, 2023

If there was widespread ballot box fraud, then we will never know as nobody was set up to look out for it. But if Turkey’s strongman does indeed remain so popular, analysts must learn that hope is not analysis.

KABANOVSKY: Public dissent within the Russian elite heralds power struggle to come

Alexander Kabanovsky May 16, 2023

Once Russian losses on the battlefield mount and Ukraine begins to push the Russian army out of the occupied territories, the delicate house of cards will fall.

STOLYPIN: So much rests on Ukraine's counter-offensive

Mark Galeotti May 14, 2023

After months in which Ukrainian officials and their Western cheerleaders talked up the chances of a quick victory, now they are trying to manage expectations of the key coming battle.

COMMENT: Russia’s inflation is low but inflationary risks remain

Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) May 13, 2023

In April Russia’s inflation rate fell below 3%, less than the Central Bank of Russia’s target rate of 4%, but it is not expected to stay there. A range of inflationary drivers are lined up to push the rate up again.

RIMMER: Gule Gule, Tayo

Julian Rimmer in London May 13, 2023

Yes, by rights, it has to be Bye Bye Erdogan in Sunday's Turkey elections. A genius for manipulating idiots has sustained him in power for 20 years, but the aggregation of voter dissatisfactions has generated a faecal tide.

ING: Disinflation in Romania is becoming more evident.

Ben Aris in Berlin May 12, 2023

At 11.2%, Romania's April inflation surprised to the downside as both the market consensus and our expectations were 11.5%.

COMMENT: Five professionals give their take on what will happen in Turkey’s weekend elections

bne IntelIiNews May 10, 2023

Scenario in which Erdogan and his ruling party refuse to hand over power repeatedly mentioned.

KABANOVKSY: Kyiv celebrates Victory Day in the shadow of an ongoing war

Alexander Kabanovsky in Kyiv May 10, 2023

It has been more than 24 hours since I left Berlin for Kyiv, and I am exhausted as the train pulls into the central train station. Despite the fog of two sleepless nights, I am struck by Kyiv's greenness. And then there was a drone attack.

KABANOVSKY: The fall of the USSR – a disaster for the West?

Alexander Kabanovsky in Berlin May 10, 2023

Of the many questionable statements Vladimir Putin has made over the years, the one concerning the tragedy of the collapse of the Soviet Union may have been the closest to the truth, but not in the way he intended.