Opinion

OPINION: Afghanistan’s neighbours recast refugee finance formula

Gary Kleiman of Kleiman Intl Consultants Inc October 16, 2021

Neighbouring markets could be tapped as part of the global refugee fundraising effort, and bridge the tens of billions of dollars annual gap in UN appeals.

FPRI BMB Russia: Russia launches its Strategic Initiatives programme

FPRI BMB Russia October 13, 2021

The Russian government approved a list of 42 strategic initiatives for socio-economic development of the country on October 7. Their aim, according to the official announcement, is “to improve people’s quality of life."

ING: Russian ruble enters 4Q21 on a strong note

Dmitry Dolgin chief economist Russia at ING in Moscow October 12, 2021

Russia's exceptionally strong current account surplus helped the ruble outperform its peer currencies in 3Q21 and is likely to keep doing so in 4Q21. As a result, we see USDRUB appreciating to 70.0-71.0 in the coming month.

STOLYPIN: It isn’t the ‘Usual Suspect' who is really 'weaponising gas'

Mark Galeotti October 11, 2021

That naughty Vladimir Putin is up to his tricks again. Not weaponising football hooligans or COVID vaccines this time, but gas. Politicians are queuing up to blame Russia. The trouble is, this is not just bad analysis but also bad politics.

ING: Winter is coming… and so is further volatility for energy markets

Warren Patterson Head of Commodities Strategy at ING in Holland October 10, 2021

Energy prices have seen significant strength recently. European gas prices have rallied 94% during September, taking them to record levels. Oil and coal have also strengthened.

ING: consumption surge and rising in investment driving Russian GDP growth in 3Q21

Dmitri Dolgin chief economist Russia ING October 8, 2021

Consumption was the key driver of the 2Q21 economic recovery and remains so in 3Q21, with August employment and retail trade above expectations ahead of the likely spike in September.

FPRI BMB Ukraine: Ukraine has more politicians in Pandora Papers than any other country in the world

FPRI BMB Ukraine October 8, 2021

Thirty-eight Ukrainian politicians are named in the Pandora Papers, including President Zelenskiy himself. In fact, Ukraine had more politicians pop up in the leak than any other country in the world.

COMMENT: Energy lobby dominates Czech climate change debate

Albin Sybera October 8, 2021

Whoever wins the election, the energy lobby will continue to slow down the country's transformation to a carbon-neutral future.

AFC CAPITAL: Uzbekistan’s capital markets entering Phase II

Scott Osheroff October 6, 2021

Phase I re-rating has seen listed equities go from “never should have been so cheap” to now value-oriented and buttressed by strong profit growth profiles.

ING: Russia to stabilise FX intervention, reinforcing ruble

Dmitri Dolgin chief economist Russia ING October 6, 2021

Despite the recent spike in oil and gas prices, Russia will limit mandatory FX purchases to $4.4bn, significantly lower than the $9-10bn monthly current account surplus that is to be expected for 4Q21 to support the currency.

Avoiding water bankruptcy in the drought-troubled southwest: What the US and Iran can learn from each other

Mojtaba Sadegh & Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani, & Amir Agha Kouchak October 2, 2021

Iranians have learnt the hard way that water shortages cannot be mitigated only by increasing water supply – it’s also important to manage water demand.

ING: Inflation in Poland continues unabated, could near 7% in December

Rafal Benecki Chief Economist at ING in Poland October 1, 2021

Polish inflation is set to keep rising in the coming months, nearing 7% by December 2021. We see average CPI in 2021 at 4.75% y/y and at 4.5% y/y in 2022. The NBP may quite likely under-deliver with tightening vs elevated market expectations.

COMMENT: New skirmish between Serbia and Kosovo threatens the future of dialogue

Alex Young in Belgrade September 29, 2021

Without a comprehensive normalisation of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, tensions will continue to fester and the daily lives of Kosovo’s Serbs and Albanians alike will be sorely affected.

FPRI BMB Russia: Oil prices over $80, Russia accused of playing politics to get long-term deals

FPRI BMB Russia September 29, 2021

The price of gas in Europe has increased dramatically in recent weeks, influenced by surging demands and insufficient production. The price of North Sea Brent crude approached the level of $80 per barrel for the first time in three years.

Uranium: what the explosion in prices means for the nuclear industry

Edward Thomas Jones & Danial Hemmings, & Simon Middleburgh September 28, 2021

The primary fuel for nuclear plants was sliding for much of the 2010s, with no signs of a major turnaround. Yet since mid-August, prices have surged by around 60% as investors and speculators scramble to snap up the commodity.

Perspectives | Will international law help resolve the Karabakh conflict?

Kamal Makili-Aliyev for Eurasianet September 24, 2021

A case filed by Armenia against Azerbaijan in the International Court of Justice could have significant implications for the conflict. And it carries risks for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

ING: ECB’s push for net-zero carbon will grow ESG credit

Timothy Rahill Credit Strategist at ING in Amsterdam, Jeroen van den Broek Global Head of Sector Research at ING in Amsterdam September 24, 2021

In the push for reducing carbon, significant investment will be necessary, and in turn, funding will be required. This will provide growth for the credit market, and in particular for anything associated with ESG.

COMMENT: Risk premiums in Central Europe during the COVID era do surprisingly well

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors September 23, 2021

In times of crisis there is a fight to quality by bond traders who are keen to reduce their risks. However, in this crisis the countries of Central Europe have done surprisingly well thanks to ECB support.

ING: Romania economy cooling, looking for new drivers

Valentin Tataru chief economist for Romania at ING in Bucharest September 23, 2021

With the rapid economic recovery phase now behind us and the peak of the fourth COVID wave just ahead, the Romanian economy is starting to feel the need for additional growth drivers.

STOLYPIN: Communists face new realities as United Russia steals their votes

Mark Galeotti September 22, 2021

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation massively improved its standing following the elections for a new Duma, but was robbed of the much larger share it actually won. The question now is what – if anything – can the KPRF do?

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