Opinion
ING: Negative growth for Central and Eastern Europe with more easing ahead
All CEE countries should experience negative growth in 2020, with 2Q20 constituting the bottom.
Lukashenko’s death match
Thanks to a dictator who jokes about keeping coronavirus at bay with vodka, the Minsk derby became the big game for football punters around the world as the Belarus Premier League got permission to carry on. Infectious enthusiasm, fatal for some?
TURKEY INSIGHT: Peering into the forex hole
Hard currency reserves back in focus. Net portfolio outflows since December 20 stacked up to $6bn.
THE MITTELEUROPEAN VIEW: Why it is exactly the right time to fully revive the Vienna Initiative 1.0
For the banking sectors in CEE, hypothetical stress scenarios are becoming reality. A forum like the Vienna Initiative could be an ideal place to find coherent solutions during the current crisis.
BCS: Pricing in a global recession
Recession is no surprise now, but uncertainty makes investors nervous. The situation has aggravated uncertainty about the duration and the depth of the economic downturn. Most assets have already priced in the recession, its fallout is still unclear.
Citizens fear unscrupulous leaders will take advantage of lockdowns
Restricting social interaction is a vital part of the efforts to delay the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, but in some countries people fear politicians will use the opportunity for their own ends.
COLCHIS: Why is Georgia succeeding with the coronavirus where many Western countries are failing?
When the biggest health crisis in a century hits, where would you prefer to be: the Netherlands or Georgia? Until very recently, almost no one would name the South Caucasus country as their choice.
COMMENT: The Uzbek government reaches out to business ahead of its privatisation campaign
In the spirit of openness and transparency, the Uzbek government, represented by State Asset Management Agency (SAMA), has called on a large meeting of stakeholders such as development financial institutions (DFIs), news agencies including popular bloggers and Big Four consulting and audit firms and other interested parties to discuss the large privatization efforts it is undertaking.
COMMENT: Pandemic brings “S” back to ESG, Russian business responds
Russian companies have been putting ESG policies into place in the last year, but the focus until now was on the environmental element. In the face of a pandemic that focus has now shifted to the social part
THE MITTELEUROPEAN VIEW: Looking for LUV — what shape will Europe’s recovery from this existential crisis be?
There is a new acronym in the economists' lexicon: VUCA. It is short for “Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous” as pundits are struggling to explain a crisis that is coming at us from all sides simultaneously.
BCS GM: Money will not cure the virus, only time
The reaction of governments worldwide to the epidemic has been predictable – countries have announced emergency lifelines, with regulators cutting rates and/or providing liquidity injections. But so far these measures have brought little relief.
BCS GM: Money will not cure the virus, only time
The reaction of governments worldwide to the epidemic has been predictable – countries announced emergency lifelines, with regulators cutting rates and/or providing liquidity injections. But so far these measures have brought little relief.
COLCHIS: The Ghost of National Movements Past
Merabishvili doesn’t appear to have a viable political future. But if he chooses to re-enter politics, it will only reinforce the sentiment that Georgia needs a new path forward - an alternative to Georgian Dream, surely, but one that doesn’t recall the wounds of the National Movement era.
TURKEY INSIGHT: Ankara scurries to tap €1.3bn from local lenders as lira tanks amid “The COVID-19 Sudden Stop”
Not long off the canvas after suffering a near knockout in its currency crisis, country could find itself out of ammo in the face of a Global Financial Crisis II.
ING: Russia bracing for oil shock: initial thoughts
The Russian market is facing volatility, with large fiscal reserves and high real rates coming back into investors' focus, but only after the oil- and corona-related dust settles.
MACRO ADVISOR: Oil War: Who will blink first?
When Russia refused to back Saudi Arabia’s proposal for a deeper oil production cut in Vienna on March 6, it effectively fired the first shot in what looks like being an expensive and prolonged oil price war.
ING: The OPEC+ break-up: It’s not you, it’s me
OPEC+ knew they had to surprise the market, and that is what they did. Although the surprise was failing to come to a deal, rather than cutting more than expected. $30 oil here we come...