IMF: Geoeconomic fragmentation threatens Food security and clean energy transition

IMF blog October 4, 2023

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 fragmented major commodity markets. Countries have since restricted trade in commodities, with a more than twofold increase in new policy measures relative to 2021.

COMMENT: Russia would be the only winner from conflict in Kosovo

Ann Smith in New York October 3, 2023

Many questions about the violent clashes in north Kosovo on September 24 — including whether there was foreign involvement — remain unanswered.

ING: Hungarian risks accumulating

bne IntelliNews October 3, 2023

HESS: Nagorno-Karabakh shows up the myth of a “rules-based international order”

Maximilian Hess in London September 30, 2023

The tragic situation in Nagorno-Karabakh – where, at of the time of writing, more than 93,000 of the region’s estimated 120,000 ethnic Armenian residents have fled -- shows that there is no such thing as a rules-based international order.

COMMENT: Pashinyan is unpopular but the opposition looks too weak to oust him

Zachary Weiss in Tbilisi September 27, 2023

Armenian premier has ridden out worse storms and he may now be able to use Western links to raise his standing.

COMMENT: Time for Europe to get tough on Azerbaijan

bne IntelIiNews September 26, 2023

“By launching a military offensive in Nagorny Karabakh, President Aliyev forfeited the trust of Europeans. Azerbaijan’s status as a transport hub cannot be a reason for the EU to go soft on Baku,” says scholar Thomas de Waal.

RIDDLE: Russia’s vanishing trade surplus

Vladislav Inozemtsev of the Centre for Post-Industrial Studies September 26, 2023

Over the last quarter of a century, the Russian economy has experienced a roller coaster ride: it has seen both rapid growth in the 2000s and the failures of 1998 and 2008, not to mention the stagnation of the 2010s.

COMMENT: A fresh crisis looming in Nagorno-Karabakh, the resolution will be long and hard

bne IntelliNews September 24, 2023

“A fresh disaster may be looming in Nagorno-Karabakh, the majority-Armenian highland enclave within the borders of Azerbaijan,” wrote veteran scholar Thomas de Waal for Carnegie Europe in a note on September 24.

ING: Diesel supply concerns grow with Russian export ban

Warren Patterson head of commodities strategy at ING September 24, 2023

Middle distillate markets received another boost yesterday after Russia announced that it would be temporarily banning diesel and gasoline exports. This is at a time when there is already plenty of concern around middle distillate availability.

Russia blanks Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Zack Weiss in Tbilisi September 23, 2023

Defending Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are no longer in line with Moscow’s evolving interests.

PANNIER: How ‘C5+1’ set the stage for a new era in US-Central Asia relations

Bruce Pannier September 22, 2023

Focus shifts from security to energy security, renewable energy and transportation infrastructure, while there are no illusions about delivering democracy.

MACRO ADVISORY: Can new political allies help revive Iran’s old economy?

Chris Weafer CEO of Macro-Advisory September 22, 2023

Iran is emerging from international isolation, not with former partners in Western nations but with countries in the Eurasia region, Asia, other Middle Eastern states and Africa.

RenCap founder dubs Ukraine war “a catastrophic failure of international diplomacy”

Jason Corcoran in London September 19, 2023

Speaking to the Leighton Smith Podcast in New Zealand last month, Jennings looked back at his more than two decades in Russia, his hasty exit after losing control of RenCap to his oligarch partner as well as his reflections on the war in Ukraine.

COMMENT: Serbia’s treatment of anti-war Russians is sabotaging its investment reputation

Ann Smith in New York September 18, 2023

The brightest side of Belgrade's decision to stay neutral after the invasion of Ukraine was giving a chance to anti-regime activists to leave Russia. Now this is being undermined.

COMMENT: What to expect if Bulgaria expels Lukoil

Fuad Shahbazov in Durham September 14, 2023

Russian oil company effectively used its business activities to develop enormous political leverage in Bulgaria.

G20 underlines that fracturing is becoming a reality

Ben Aris in Berlin September 14, 2023

The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former.

THE VIEW FROM MITTELEUROPA: Austria struggles to kick addiction to Russian gas

Marcus How of VE Insight in Vienna September 13, 2023

But cold turkey looms at the end of next year when Ukraine looks set to suspend pipeline shipments.

STOLYPIN: Patriots against Putin

Mark Galeotti director of consultancy Mayak Intelligence and honorary professor at UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies September 6, 2023

When Putin either had Evgeny Prigozhin killed or at least approved the operation – for there is no evidence to suggest it came as a welcome or unwelcome surprise – he may have eliminated one problem, but arguably exacerbated another.

Francis Fukuyama says a weakened Russia will present opportunities for Central Asia

bne IntelIiNews September 5, 2023

While in Almaty for a book launch, US political scientist suggests that if Moscow comes out of Ukraine war diminished, the ‘Stans’ will have room to set their own policies without worrying about the Russian response.

CENUSA: Three scenarios for the Transnistrian conflict settlement

Denis Cenusa in Germany September 5, 2023

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, conflict resolution in Moldova’s separatist Transnistria region appears more realistic, but Chisinau still depends on the Transnistrian region in terms of security and energy.