Opinion
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AFC Capital: Uzbekistan’s antiquated banking sector must wake up to invest-to-compete principle
Arrival of Georgia’s TBC Bank on local market may incentivise local banks to digitise, provide good customer service and eliminate bottlenecks.
IIF Green Weekly Insight: The Roaring Twenties
Global demand for electricity is projected to surge over 20% this decade. Power generation accounts for 40% of emissions and Emerging markets, notably China and India, will account for over 85% of rising demand in the next ten years.
EAST CAPITAL: Romania — can 2019’s best frontier market continue to perform in 2020?
It is now over a year since the Romanian government, in December 2018, unexpectedly introduced draconian taxes across different sectors, which sent equities into a spin. Yet it finished the year with a 39% return on equities.
ING: Russian industry hoping for a better 2020
Even though overall industrial production growth softened in 2019, some investment-driven sectors outperformed, including those focused on agriculture, oil downstream, chemicals, construction and transportation.
TURKEY INSIGHT: The puzzle of Borsa Istanbul’s foreign-held shares boom
Stock exchange may be rallying but the data on why is just not available to investors playing these murky markets.
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TURKEY INSIGHT: How long can the Turkey ETF rally last?
No-one wants to rain on the parade, but it would be folly to ignore the “debt volcano” and a competition probe into Turkish banks launched by officials of an administration that “needs some cash”.
OUTLOOK 2020 Georgia
Country goes into general election year after wave of street protests against deviations from democracy. There is major political uncertainty, but the economy remains surprisingly robust.
ING THINK: Russia tempted to ease fiscal rule and spend more
Russia entered 2020 with a spending backlog of around 1% of GDP, which the new cabinet may now start unwinding. With the budget breakeven oil price below $50/bbl there is some space to increase spending.
ALACO DISPATCHES: What lies behind oligarch impunity in Ukraine
Efforts to investigate financial crimes have been largely unsuccessful due to endemic corruption within the judiciary.
ING: Russian balance of payments calls for caution over RUB
Balance of payments for 4Q19 suggests weakness in the current account and tells us that as much as $25bn of net portfolio inflows into local currency state bonds (OFZ) may be needed in 2020 in order to avoid ruble depreciation.
ING: Hungarian inflation jumps to 4% in December
Hungary's headline inflation rose remarkably in December, as expected, mainly on the back of energy prices. But what's more important is that core inflation slowed somewhat, so we see the central bank remaining calm.
ING: Romanian year-end inflation above target band at 4%
At 4.0% y/y, December inflation came in slightly above our 3.9% forecast and market consensus. We believe that this will be the peak for many months to come.
TEHRAN BLOG: Now is no time to appease Trump
As the US tramples on international law and lapdog UK’s PM says nuclear deal can be replaced with something from “the great dealmaker”, respecters of democracy everywhere should side with the lesser of two evils: Iran.
ING: Turkey’s unemployment trending down
October figures show economic recovery starting to cut the number of jobless.
ING: Czech industrial production fell by more than expected in November as economy cools
Industrial production in Czechia fell by 5.7% year-on-year in November as the five year long boom comes to an end.
VIENNEAST COMPASS: Risk outlook 2020 – balancing in limbo
CEESE had a good year in 2019, with the economies in the region buoyed by increasing domestic consumption and capital spending that allowed the region to decouple from western Europe.
Assassination of Soleimani: What if Iran’s real plan of revenge is to turf Trump out of office?
As rockets exploded near the US embassy in Baghdad late on January 8, observers were asking if Tehran’s casualty-free attacks on Iraq bases were just a pre-cursor to the long game.
CAPITAL ECONOMICS: CEE growth comes off the boil in 2019, but loose money and strong demand will bolster growth in 2020
The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) fell sharply in December, although they remain consistent with regional GDP growth holding steady at around 3.6% y/y in Q4. Robust domestic demand should help to cushion the blow
COMMENT: Will the US launch large scale war against Iran following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani
The Caucasus states are now looking on nervously after the assassination of iconic Iranian general and Commander-in-Chief of the elite Quds Forces Qassem Soleimani as a regional war would be devastating
MITTELEUROPA: Following the French hit on Western Balkans, all eyes on Croatia and Germany in 2020
Just as brusquely as the French president recently discredited Nato (where France's real influence may not be so great), he has done the same with the Western Balkans and the EU enlargement process. And in the EU, France's position is decisive.