Can Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe?

Ben Aris in Berlin January 28, 2022

With the US threatening Russia with “massive consequences” if it invades Ukraine, Russia has threatened to take “military and technical” action in response. Is cutting Europe off from gas deliveries one of the Kremlin’s options?

War in Ukraine would send global grain prices soaring, threatening a possible repeat of the Arab Spring

Ben Aris in Berlin January 28, 2022

Ukraine together with Russia is one of the world’s biggest grain exporters and already the main source of wheat for many developing countries. A Russian invasion of Ukraine would smash its agricultural sector and send grain prices rocketing.

bneGREEN: Meeting 1.5 °C could cost $75 trillion by 2050

By Richard Lockhart in Edinburgh January 28, 2022

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could reduce global GDP by 2%, or $75 trillion, by 2050 as spending must increase to accelerate the energy transition.

Russia’s Lavrov gives cold welcome to US Nato enlargement crisis letter, but holds door open for more talks

Ben Aris in Berlin January 27, 2022

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gave a chilly reception to the formal written response from the US to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s eight-point list of demands issued in December, but held the door open for more talks.

wiiw slashes Emerging Europe growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023

bne IntelliNews January 27, 2022

Turkish growth is expected to slow to 3.5% this year, from a forecast 9.5% in 2021, while for Russia, GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2% from 4.5%.

US letter rejects Russia’s No Nato Enlargement demand, as Normandy Four talks resume

bne IntelliNews January 27, 2022

The US State Department has rejected Russia’s demands for a freeze on Nato’s expansion to the east in a highly anticipated written response to Russia’s December eight point list of demands delivered on January 26.

Emerging Europe M&A soars by 55% to €94bn in 2021

bne IntelliNews January 26, 2022

Dealmaking returns to pre-pandemic levels as confidence recovers and low interest rates and big cash piles push up valuations.

NEMETHY: Is monetary tightening the cure for inflation?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors January 26, 2022

The US Fed has not increased interest rates, just talked of increasing rates – not even by that much — and global stock exchanges lost $4.2 trillion in week. How can the Fed kill off the current high inflation without crashing the economy?

Who needs a war?

bne IntelliNews January 25, 2022

Russia increases its military presence in Belarus as tensions rise with Ukraine. But whose interests will guide the Belarusian regime’s actions?

Western allies sending Ukraine arms, but not Germany

bne IntelliNews January 25, 2022

With the fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine mounting, many of its allies have ramped up arms deliveries to the embattled nation – but not all.

ASH: Russia escalation cost/benefit

Timothy Ash in London January 24, 2022

Putin has moved to escalate tensions with Ukraine, putting a huge and unprecedented Russian military force on its Western border and also launching a concerted “coercive” diplomatic effort to sketch out new red lines for Nato.

Baltics to send weapons to Ukraine as fears of Russian invasion rise

bne IntelliNews January 24, 2022

Estonia will send Javelin anti-armour missiles, while Latvia and Lithuania will send Stinger antiaircraft missiles.

Polls show Russian public opinion united on Ukraine

Theo Normanton in Moscow January 23, 2022

Data from surveys show that Russian sentiment is more homogeneous than in recent years on questions surrounding a potential conflict with Ukraine. Fears of war are high, America's allies are largely held responsible, but appetite for conflict is low.

Nato rejects Russian request to withdraw from Bulgaria and Romania

bne IntelliNews January 23, 2022

Both Nato and the governments in Bucharest and Sofia have firmly rejected Russia’s request that Nato forces withdraw from countries that joined after 1997.

Russian troops concentrate in southeastern Belarus, increasing fears of invasion of Ukraine

bne IntelliNews January 23, 2022

Western fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus are increasing as Russian troops concentrate in Belarus’ Gomel region. Meanwhile, Zelenskiy is playing down war fears, saying that no war is imminent.

MOSCOW BLOG: Nato showdown – Geneva III

Ben Aris in Berlin January 21, 2022

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have just sat down for the third meeting in Geneva for what is probably the last round of meetings in the first phase of the Ukraine crisis.

UniCredit's hopes of acquiring Russia's Otkritie Bank marred by geopolitical tensions

Theo Normanton in Moscow January 21, 2022

UniCredit is considering a takeover of Russia's Otkritie Bank, but rising geopolitical tensions coupled with an increasingly competitive financial environment could jeopardise the plan.

Zelenskiy plays down war fears as tensions continue to rise

bne IntelliNews January 21, 2022

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy played down war fears calling on the people to stop the runs on banks and food stockpiling, saying no war is imminent in a video released on January 20.

Moscow court lifts US investor Michael Calvey's restrictions on leaving home

bne IntelliNews January 21, 2022

The Meshchansky District Court of Moscow has lifted the house arrest restrictions on US fund manager Michael Calvey and the founder of investment fund Baring Vostok after he was arrested three years ago.

Baltics boost own military capacities and pledge to send arms to Ukraine as tension mounts

Linas Jegelevicius in Vilnius January 21, 2022

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have pledged to offer Ukraine assistance, including in cyber security.