Russia Services PMI index crashes to a new all-time low of 37.1 in March

Ben Aris in Berlin April 3, 2020

The IHS Markit Russia Services Purchasing Index (PMI) index crashed to a new all-time low as the double whammy of an oil price collapse and the stop-shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic hit the services industry.

Russia, Saudi Arabia agree to slash oil production, Trump claims

bne IntelliNews April 2, 2020

Donald Trump said on April 2 that Russia and Saudi Arabia would be cutting their output, instead of continuing with a supply war that could result in hundreds of oil companies going out of business. The Kremlin denied his claim.

Watcom shopping index collapses as Moscow put on lockdown

Ben Aris in Berlin April 2, 2020

The Watcom shopping index, which measures foot traffic in Moscow’s largest malls in real time, collapsed at the start of this week, falling by 70.9% year on year after Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin put the Russian capital on strict lockdown.

EBRD reveals CEE/Eurasia economies’ vulnerability to external shocks amid coronavirus crisis

bne IntelIiNews April 1, 2020

Development bank looks at the resilience of states in the region to falling commodity prices, value chain disruption, declines in tourism and domestic disruption.

The calm before the storm: Russia’s March PMI manufacturing index shows only a mild decline

bne IntelliNews April 1, 2020

It is still too early for the full impact of the double whammy of the oil prices crash and pandemic related stop shock, but Russia’s IHS Markit Russia PMI was already slowing in March before the storm broke

Moscow locked down as coronavirus infections in Russia accelerate

bne IntelliNews March 30, 2020

Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin ordered a lockdown of the Russian capital in the evening of March 29 that is effective from Monday morning.

Russia's National Welfare Fund steps up again to $157.2bn, or 11% of GDP, in March

bne IntelliNews March 27, 2020

The Russian Ministry of Finance announced on March 19 that it has transferred last year's budget surplus to the National Welfare Fund (NWF), which now amounts to about RUB12,200bn ($157.2bn), or 11% of GDP

IIF forecasts a contraction of -1.4% in CEE, -1.3% in Russia, but Turkish growth remains in the black in 2020

Ben Aris in Berlin March 26, 2020

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) released updated forecasts for economic growth this year for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries that show a sharp slowdown in 2020 and all except Turkey will return negative results.

Is Russia’s healthcare system up to dealing with the coronavirus?

Ben Aris in Berlin March 26, 2020

Experts worry that Russia is ill-prepared to deal with a spike in infections thanks to the neglect of health system reform.

Is the pace of outflows from EMs starting to slow?

bne IntelliNews March 26, 2020

Equity and bond markets have been rocked by record volumes of outflows since the end of February in one of the biggest sell offs ever, but the pace of selling seems to be slowing in the last few days, said the Institute of International Finance (IIF)

Capital Economics slashes CEE growth forecasts for 2020 to -2% y/y

bne IntelliNews March 25, 2020

Economic consultancy Capital Economics has slashed its growth forecast for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to a 2% y/y contractions from the previous 2.3% expansion in 2020, as a result of the coronavirus.

Fitch cuts oil price outlook for 2020 from 62.5/bbl to $41/bbl on global recession fears

Ben Aris in Berlin March 24, 2020

Fitch Ratings has cut its short and medium-term oil and natural gas price assumptions in expectation of very large market oversupply in 2020.

BCS: Pricing in a global recession

Vladimir Tikhomirov chief economist BCS Global Markets March 24, 2020

Recession is no surprise now, but uncertainty makes investors nervous. The situation has aggravated uncertainty about the duration and the depth of the economic downturn. Most assets have already priced in the recession, its fallout is still unclear.

Russian pipemaker ChelPipe getting ready for IPO

Ben Aris in Berlin March 24, 2020

With the predominance of oil and gas in Russia’s economy the pipe-making business is a big one. ChelPipe is the market leader and is now considering an IPO.

Citizens fear unscrupulous leaders will take advantage of lockdowns

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow March 23, 2020

Restricting social interaction is a vital part of the efforts to delay the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, but in some countries people fear politicians will use the opportunity for their own ends.

Russia's Watcom shopping index: so far so good

bne IntelliNews March 23, 2020

The Watcom shopping index fell to 464 in the eleventh week of this year from its annual International Women’s spike on March 8 of 501, but so far the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has not made itself felt on foot traffic in Moscow’s leading malls.

Russia’s economy to contract by 1% in 2020, says BOFIT

Ben Aris in Berlin March 23, 2020

Russia’s economy will contract by 1% in 2020, according to the latest forecast by the widely respected Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT).

Russian e-retailer Ozon caps prices for the most sought-after goods to prevent gouging

bne IntelliNews March 20, 2020

One of Russia’s “big three” online retailers Ozon Holdings announced that it was capping the prices of essential goods that are currently in high demand to prevent manufacturers gouging customers.

Russian assets sees a all-time record $1.4bn of outflows in a week

bne IntelliNews March 20, 2020

Russian assets saw an all-time record $1.4bn outflows from investors from its combined equity and bond securities in the week ending March 18 compared with an outflow of $590mn the week before.

COMMENT: Pandemic brings “S” back to ESG, Russian business responds

Irina Logutenkova and Tom Blackwell of EM in Moscow March 20, 2020

Russian companies have been putting ESG policies into place in the last year, but the focus until now was on the environmental element. In the face of a pandemic that focus has now shifted to the social part