Opinion
COMMENT: So what did happen to that claimed Turkish aspiration to join BRICS?
Evidence of any real intent in Ankara to join the emerging economies club is rather thin on the ground.
KABANOVSKY: Prigozhin is served, with a side of Duck
Like him or hate him, Evgeny Prigozhin and his sidekick, Dmitry Utkin, aka “Wagner”, had quite the run. Their coup-not-coup captured the world’s attention at the end of June until Prigozhin changed his mind, and did a deal to save his life.
NEMETHY: How Hungary’s oligarchs destroy standards of living for the majority
Soon after re-election in 2010, Fidesz introduced a new ideology, the National System of Cooperation (Nemzeti Együtműködesi Rendszer, NER).
STOLYPIN: The limits of Russian mobilisation
One of the recurring critiques of Western support for Ukraine is always that it’s too little, too late. Setting aside how fair or sensible this is, the striking thing is the degree to which there is a comparable strand of argument in Russia.
RIDDLE: Pavlov’s stimulus – understanding ‘military Keynesianism’ in Russia
‘Military Keynesianism’ is said to be giving the Russian economy a bump, but how big and effective is the effect?
MCFAUL: Western pundits’ “give peace a chance” with no strategy is not realism
With Ukraine’s counteroffensive moving slower than many desire or expected, a new explosion of op-eds from American and European commentators has called for negotiations to end the war.
KABANOVSKY: Is Ukraine worth the trouble? The West’s resolve may be fraying
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is progressing more slowly than everyone hoped, but it is progressing and yielding results. Nevertheless, the mood in the West on the war is shifting.
CRB’s emergency rate hike crystallizes macroeconomic stability risks
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) was forced to increase its policy rate by a whopping 350 basis points to 12% during an unscheduled meeting on August 15, which has highlighted deep imbalances in the Russian economy.
MACRO ADVISORY: Ruble’s fall creates currency risk in Central Asia and the Caucasus
The Russian ruble has fallen by 28.5% in value vs. the US dollar since the start of this year but it has yet to have a big impact on the currencies of the other members of the CIS. But it could do so soon.
RIDDLE: A valve that cannot be shut off
Despite the numerous economic sanctions imposed by Russia and Ukraine (along with their allies) on each other, the gas trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $6.1bn in 2022 and has not stopped despite the war.
NEMETHY: Why is Hungary the EU inflation leader?
Hungary has by far the highest inflation in the EU. It is the result of poor policy choices.
CENUSA: Russia's attack on the Odesa ports and the looming food crisis
About a year after the war of attrition against Ukraine in the energy field, Russia is applying the same tactics against the grain export infrastructure of the Odesa region.
MACRO ADVISORY: Buckle up. August is here
August has always been an unpredictable month in Russia with a high proportion of accidents, political surprises, and economic crises recorded this month in history.
NEMETHY: Comparing the SME sector of Hungary with the Visegrad Four and EU
Governments across the Visegrad Four should be paying more attention to SMEs and ensuring their prosperity.
MITTELEUROPEAN INSIGHTS: Central and Southeastern European monetary policy is either on autopilot or in a tightrope act
The accumulated central bank credibility in Czechia and Poland could allow for bolder monetary easing as compared to Romania and especially the MNB in Hungary.
PANNIER: Turkmenistan claims population jump but compelling evidence points to slump
Regime’s claim that first census in 17 years recorded 7mn people is not at all believable.
PROKOPENKO: Western assets in Russia, navigating a challenging landscape
In 2023, amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has shifted its focus from the battlefield to the economy. Now the Kremlin has started nationalising Western assets in Russia after several Russian assets in Europe were seized.
MACRO ADVISORY: Russia’s economy posts the highest rate of expansion since early 2022
According to estimates by the Economy Ministry based on data from RosStat, in May the growth in Russia’s GDP accelerated to 5.4% year on year from 3.4% y/y in April.
PANNIER: There is no graceful exit from office for Central Asian presidents – except for the grave
Until a Central Asian president does manage to leave office and peacefully retire, the cycle of lifelong leaders is likely to continue.