According to preliminary data from the CBR, Russia posted a current account surplus of $10.3bn in November, down from $17.7bn in October and $16.5bn last November, but much higher than the surpluses seen in November of 2019 and 2020. (chart)
This brought the current account surplus over 11M22 to $225.7bn. The narrowing of the current account surplus in November was attributable to the goods and services surplus, which shrank to $12.7bn from $19.3bn in October due to lower oil and gas exports and a recovery in imports. This put the goods and services surplus over 11M22 at $269.8bn. With all that being said, the current account data is subject to revision.
“The 11M22 data was generally in line with our expectations. We anticipate a current account surplus of around $10bn in December as well. This would bring the surplus over the full year to $235bn. Next year, we expect the current account surplus to shrink to $120bn due to higher imports and lower exports,” Sber said in a note.
The CBR said in its comments:
Billions of US dollars |
|||||
Aggregates |
QI 2022 |
QII 2022 |
QIII 2022 (estimate) |
Jan—Nov 2022 (estimate) |
Jan—Nov 2021 |
Current account |
69.8 |
76.7 |
51.2 |
225.7 |
108.6 |
Balance on goods and services |
79.3 |
90.3 |
68.2 |
269.8 |
145.5 |
Balance on primary and secondary income |
-9.5 |
-13.6 |
-17.1 |
-44.2 |
-36.9 |
Source: CBR