A shift to the right is expected across many EU member states in the upcoming 2024 European Parliament elections, with populist radical right parties poised to gain significant traction at the expense of centre-left and green parties. 

According to research by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) based on early polling data, anti-European populist movements are expected to lead in nine member states including all of the Visegrad Four countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. They are projected to secure second or third positions in nine others including Bulgaria and Romania in Southeast Europe and the Baltic states of Estonia and Latvia. 

The forecast suggests a departure from the traditional dominance of the centre, with almost half the seats projected to be held by MEPs outside the "super grand coalition" of the three centrist groups. 

There is the potential for a populist right coalition, comprising Christian democrats, conservatives and radical right MEPs, to emerge with a majority in the European Parliament for the first time, should they choose to work together.

Far-right parties increasingly dominant 

"Far-right parties are becoming increasingly dominant in national settings across many EU capitals,” said the ECFR policy brief, titled ‘A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections’. 

This reflects a trend observed in recent elections and policy debates. The success of far-right movements, such as Geert Wilders' Freedom Party in the Netherlands and the National Rally's influence on France's immigration policies, underscores the significant role played by the far right in shaping European politics in 2023

The May 2024 elections are expected to continue this trend at the European level.

The rise of the right has not been uniform, however, as shown by the loss of power for Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS) in 2023, defying expectations of a looming populist tidal wave in Europe. 

Centrist parties to lose seats 

The ECFR’s projections are based on the most recent opinion polls from all EU member states and use a statistical model based on previous European Parliament elections.

According to this model, the centre right European People's Party (EPP) and the centre left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are expected to continue losing seats, reflecting the ongoing decline in support for mainstream parties. 

Despite this, the EPP is predicted to remain the largest group in the parliament.

The centrist Renew Europe (RE) group and the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) are also projected to lose seats, while the Left group is anticipated to increase its representation.

The major winners in the elections are expected to be the populist right, with the radical right Identity and Democracy (ID) group predicted to gain 40 seats and emerge as the third-largest group in the new parliament. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group is also forecasted to gain 18 seats, potentially surpassing RE and ID if Fidesz in Hungary decides to join the ECR.

If the ECR and ID groups unite, they could have as many as 25% of MEPs, surpassing the seats of the EPP or the S&D for the first time. 

Projected makeup of the European Parliament. Source: ECFR. 

 

Policy implications 

This anticipated 'sharp right turn' could have far-reaching consequences for European-level policies, particularly impacting foreign policy choices, with a new majority likely to resist ambitious EU action on climate change.

“The significant shift to the right in the new parliament will mean that an ‘anti-climate policy action’ coalition is likely to dominate. This would significantly undermine the EU’s Green Deal framework and the adoption and enforcement of common policies to meet the EU’s net zero targets,” the report says. 

Another area of concern is the rule of law. “In the current parliament there has been a narrow majority in favour of the EU imposing sanctions (such as withholding budget payments) on member states in which the rule of law is backsliding – in particular in Hungary and Poland,” says the report. 

“But after June 2024 it is likely to be harder for the centrist and centre-left MEPs … to hold the line against the continued erosion of democracy, rule of law, and civil liberties in Hungary and any other member state that might head in that direction.” 

New EU members  

In contrast to the expected surge in votes for rightwing parties across much of Europe, the prominent rightwing parties of Poland and Hungary — PiS and Fidesz respectively — are expected to perform less well than in the last election. 

In Hungary, the ECFR expects Fidesz’ share of the vote to fall from 53% in 2019 to 44% this year. 

In Poland, the upcoming European Parliament election should gauge the longevity of the shift of Polish voters away from PiS, after the national election in October 2023. 

Polls suggest that PiS will take the lead in June 2024, securing approximately 31% of the votes, followed by the centrist European Coalition (KE) alliance and Third Way (TD). Following a subpar performance in the national election, the radical right is expected to mount a comeback in June 2024, largely by siphoning votes from PiS. 

In Bulgaria, the far-right, pro-Russian Vazrazhdenie (Revival) party is expected to enter the European Parliament for the first time, with three seats. 

The party has thrived in the political instability in Bulgaria over the last three years, when the country has held no less than five parliamentary elections. It managed to increase its share of the vote from just 3% in the first vote in April 2021 to 14% in the last election in 2023, making it the third largest party in the current parliament. 

Similarly, the rightwing populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has become increasingly prominent in neighbouring Romania 

Eyes on the US

The ECFR report was released shortly before former US president Donald Trump won the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bringing him a step closer to securing the Republican nomination for this year’s presidential election. 

While several of the far right and populist right parties expected to perform well in the European Parliament elections can be seen as natural allies of Trump, the ECFR report indicates that a Trump win may encourage them to take a more cautious approach. 

"The prospect of a less globally engaged United States in the aftermath of the 2024 election prompts European parties to reassess their reliance on traditional international partnerships,” the report says. “This shift may manifest in a more restrained foreign policy stance, driven by a desire to safeguard European interests autonomously."