Southeast Europe / Data
EC, EBRD remain bullish on Moldova’s “nascent” economic recovery
Moldova’s nascent economic recovery began in the second half of 2023 and is expected to strengthen from 0.7% last year to 2.9% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025 almost entirely on domestic demand.
Romania’s CA balance flat y/y at €3.95bn in Q1
The current account (CA, chart) of Romania remained roughly unchanged in nominal terms (€3.95bn) in the first quarter of the year (Q1) compared to the same period in 2023, according to data published by the National Bank of Romania (BNR).
Romania’s central bank takes cautious stance with no-change policy decision
BNR noted that the CORE inflation eased less than expected during the first quarter of the year.
North Macedonia’s central bank cuts GDP growth projection for 2024
Forecast lowered to 2.6% after underperformance in 2023 and less favourable external environment this year.
Moldova’s inflation eases to 3.5% y/y in April
Lower utilities prices were the main factor dragging down overall inflation.
Israel’s exposure to Turkey trade ban most evident in construction and food, says Capital Economics
Ankara’s move is, however, unlikely to have a major macroeconomic impact in either country, assessment concludes.
Albanian lek reaches historic high against euro ahead of Orthodox Easter
The high lek has made Albania's exports increasingly uncompetitive on European markets.
Romania’s April PMI shows output, new orders in positive area after nine-month decline
PMI index compiled by BCR Romania registered its first above-neutral score seen since data collection began last July.
Official Turkish inflation edges up in April, bordering on 70%
Alternative reading from economists is 124%. Analyst predicts central bank won’t shift to rate cuts until next year.
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Turkey’s headline manufacturing PMI drops from 50.0 no-change mark to 49.3
Sustained slowdown in new orders feeds through to renewed moderation in output.
Moldova’s industrial output shows signs of recovery in February
More abundant and cheaper gas this year creates opportunity for resumption of industrial activity in Moldova.
Turkey keeps policy rate constant at 50%
Central bank is, notably, no longer talking about building up its reserves in parallel with so-called monetary framework simplification policy.
Ford drives hike in car production in Romania
Romania’s automobile production increased by 7% y/y to more than 150,000 units in Q1.
Akbank launches spring syndicated loan renewals season for Turkish banks at better costs
Benefits of Turkey’s so-called economic normalisation policy clearly observed in external debt rollovers.
CEE falling inflation trend comes to an end
After spiking to 20-year highs thanks to the pandemic and Europe’s Russian induced energy crisis, inflation rates across the EU have tumbled in recent months. That trend has ended and CEE central banks are expected to hike rates again in 2H24.
Where Nato has an enhanced forward presence
On Monday, 8 April, Germany sent an advance team of 20 soldiers to Lithuania, laying the groundwork for the recently discussed establishment of a permanent brigade in the Nato country, Statista reports.
Grid bottlenecks on the way in Europe?
A new analysis by the energy think-tank Ember has found that several countries in Europe could soon face bottlenecks in their national transmission energy grids, as more solar and wind power will be generated than these networks have capacity for.
Summer starts as EU gas tanks start to fill again
Winter is over, as the EU gas tanks switch from withdrawals to filling mode again in preparation for next winter. Injection into the gas tanks started on April 1, a week earlier than in 2023 and started at an all-time high record level of 59.3% full.
Bulgaria’s retail sales up 0.9% m/m in February
Year on year, retail sales increased by 3.2%, after falling by 0.1% in January.
Turkey manufacturing recorded at 50.0 neutral mark by March PMI
If demand trend continues, growth-building momentum could be seen in second quarter.