UPDATED: Exit poll indicates Montenegro’s ruling DPS will struggle to form government, putting EU accession at risk

UPDATED: Exit poll indicates Montenegro’s ruling DPS will struggle to form government, putting EU accession at risk
Supporters of the opposition Democratic Front celebrate as party leader Slaven Radunovic says their For the Future of Montenegro coalition has won. / Democratic Front
By Denitsa Koseva in Sofia August 30, 2020

Montenegro’s long-ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its main rival, the coalition For the Future of Montenegro, are neck and neck in the August 30 general election, an exit poll showed.

According to the Centre for Monitoring and Research, CEMI, the DPS is on track to win 35.1% of the votes, just ahead of For the Future of Montenegro on 32.6%. Moreover, another coalition of opposition parties, Peace is Our Nation, gained 12.5% of the votes, while the opposition Black on White won 5.7%. Turnout was high at around 76%. The figures are slightly more positive for the DPS than the poll results published earlier by CEMI. 

Still, if the three opposition coalitions unite, the DPS cannot form a government and will lose its majority for the first time in three decades.

This would be unprecedented in the recent history of Montenegro — pre and post independence — as the DPS and its leader President Milo Djukanovic have been in power for over 30 years and have never lost an election. Few hours after the exit polls, Djukanovic said that his party and its traditional partners would have 40 seats in the 81-seat parliament.

"Struggling for forming majority is going on," Djukanovic said at a press conference broadcasted by RTCG.

The very close result was unexpected as pre-election polls gave the DPS a bigger advantage in comparison with For the Future of Montenegro and other candidates.

After the polls closed both the DPS and its main rival claimed to have won the largest share of the vote based on their own exit polls. 

Supporters of For the Future of Montenegro even gathered in Podgorica to celebrate the victory. The coalition's leader met the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church , which has backed the coalition, while many supporters went out in their cars, carrying Montenegrin flags and chanting "Victory!" Although the police have feared of possible tensions and clashes, there were no reports of violence in the election night.

Whoever is the winner will face tough negotiations to form a ruling coalition. Discussions are likely to last longer than in the past, when the DPS typically managed to quickly form a ruling majority. The DPS could eventually form a government, should the main opposition coalitions fail to reach a compromise on foreign policy.

However, the popularity of the ruling party has suffered as a result of the months-long crisis provoked by the adoption of the controversial law on religions at the end of 2019, which has led to protests, rallies and escalating tensions with Serbia and the Serbs living in Montenegro.

The church law, according to its critics, may strip the Serbian Orthodox Church of hundreds of religious sites in Montenegro, including medieval monasteries and churches. This has led to numerous protests in Serbia and in Montenegro. In the latest escalation, on August 23, a convoy of Serbian Orthodox Church clerics headed from Belgrade to the Jabuka monastery on the border with Montenegro in protest against the law.

It’s not only Serbians that are unhappy about the law. Two-thirds of Montenegrins are Orthodox Christian and the main church is the Serbian Orthodox Church. A separate Montenegrin Orthodox Church was set up in 1993 but has not been recognised by other Orthodox Christian communities to date.

On top of that, the popularity of the DPS has been badly hit by the tough economic crisis provoked by restrictions to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19). Montenegro once looked to have won its struggle against the virus. However, after declaring the country coronavirus-free at the end of May, in June the government reported a new outbreak and is still struggling to contain it.

If the DPS fails to form a coalition, this would put Montenegro on an uncertain path in terms of foreign policy. The DPS has always pushed for the country’s membership in Nato and the EU. However, the main party in the For the Future of Montenegro coalition – the Democratic Front – is pro-Russian and has repeatedly expressed its objections to the country’s membership in Nato. The party is also rather oriented to Moscow than to the EU.

Montenegro is seen as the most advanced Western Balkan state its the EU membership negotiations and is expected to be the first to be accepted in the bloc within a few years. A government with a pro-Russian slant might stall that process.

Meanwhile, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic commented it was too early to congratulate a winner in Montenegrin election and that he would wait for the final results and then greet the winner whoever he would be.

Vucic has announced ahead of the vote that his country will not interfere in Montenegro's general election in any way, but that his country will always support the Serbians living in the Adriatic country.

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