Tehran stock exchange outpaces all other equity markets as locals flee inflation

Tehran stock exchange outpaces all other equity markets as locals flee inflation
Iranians, enduring high inflation under sanctions, have sought out stocks to protect their savings. Pictured is the Grand Bazaar in Tehran. / # IranOpenAlbum (Danielle Harte, Bourse & Bazaar).
By bne IntelliNews October 4, 2019

Here’s a handy question for the next quiz in a Square Mile or Wall Street drinkery: which stock exchange has outpaced all other global equity markets in the past 12 months? Well, that would be the Tehran bourse, up 73% in local currency terms over the past 12 months as tracked by Bloomberg.

Iran’s stock market, asset managers say, has served as a haven from the surging inflation brought on by the crushing sanctions attack the US has waged against the Islamic Republic’s economy over the past year.

The official annual inflation rate was measured at almost 43% in September and, with local banks unable to bring in competitive interest rates, Iranians have been driven into stocks to shield the value of their savings.

“Iran’s bourse showed it can hedge against foreign currency risks and is the best market to guarantee people’s money with high dividends,” the manager of a Tehran-based asset management firm, who asked not to be named, was quoted as saying by the Financial Times on October 4.

The top 30 listed companies on the Tehran stock exchange represent more than 60% of the bourse’s market cap, according to local analysts. They include the country’s top exporters of petrochemicals, steel and copper, businesses which generate foreign currency income, thus offering protection from the domestic economic turmoil.

According to the FT, the combined market value of the Tehran Stock Exchange and the Iran Fara Bourse—the over-the-counter trading venue in the capital—has doubled in dollar terms over the past year. However, this total is some way below its 2014 peak when, as former US president Barack Obama was coming to an accommodation with Iran that would result in the 2015 nuclear deal that withdrew international sanctions against the Iranians in return for compliance with measures barring any potential path they might take to the development of a nuclear weapon, hopes were rising that the vast economic potential of the country.

The American sanctions, brought in by Donald Trump who exited the nuclear accord in May last year with demands that it should be toughened up, have barred any increase in foreign portfolio investment into Iran. That is estimated to have stayed around $50m since 2018, down from 2009 when it exceeded $100m, according to local equity houses.

“Iran’s capital market is for investors who have stamina, rather than those who see skyrocketing figures and dream of quick money,” a manager of a local investment fund was cited as remarking by the UK financial daily.

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