The revised fiscal outlook prepared by Russia's Ministry of Economic Development for September might include a notable upward revision of GDP forecasts from the previous 5% recession to a 3.9% recession expected in 2020, Kommersant daily reports on August 31 citing unnamed sources.
Reportedly, the ministry is encouraged by the faster-than-expected recovery of domestic demand in summer 2020, as well as other economic indicators in 2Q20.
As a result, investment is also expected to shrink only by 6.6% in 2020 versus the previous 12% decline expectations. The ministry also reportedly expects GDP to recover to pre-crisis levels by 3Q21.
Analysts surveyed by Kommersant daily believe that the upward revision of 2020 macro targets is justified, but note that especially the data on real income recovery is volatile.