Railway cargo turnover in Russia shows signs of recovery in August

Railway cargo turnover in Russia shows signs of recovery in August
Total railways cargo turnover in Russia in August 2020 amounted to 108mn tonnes, down by 1% year on year, slowing the decline / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews September 4, 2020

Total railways cargo turnover in Russia in August 2020 amounted to 108mn tonnes, down by 1% year on year, slowing the decline down as compared to the previous months and beating the expectations of a 5% decline for August expected by Russian Railways, VTB Capital (VTBC) wrote to clients on September 3.

As reported by bne IntelliNews, the pace of recovery is in focus in Russia as a measure of the depth of recession in 2020. Previous months have shown that real sector activity data was mostly suppressed by lower extraction volumes held back by OPEC+ output cuts, while manufacturing and consumer segments recovered faster

Also the rail transportation data in August showed that the 1% y/y decline was mostly due to 12% y/y drop in transportation of oil to 17mn tonnes, and 10% y/y decline in transportation of ferrous metals to 5mn tonnes.

At the same time, both construction materials and grain cargoes rose by 1mn tonnes y/y in the reporting period.  

Despite better-than-expected numbers in August, the Russian Railways monopoly kept its target of a 5% y/y decline for 2020, which implies a 7% drop during September-December. 
VTBC expects a 3-4% decline for 2020, or a 4% monthly slide on average during autumn and December.

Data

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