After a tumultuous first half of 2021, Armenia had settled into a comfortable rhythm. The political crisis that had been brewing since Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 war with Azerbaijan reached a near-breaking point by the time of the June national election, but ended quietly with incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s resounding victory, ushering in a period of normality. While there was the occasional blip, such as the ousting of popular Yerevan Mayor Hayk Marutyan in December, the past seven months produced few surprises in political terms.

That calm was abruptly broken on January 23, when Armen Sarkissian, Armenia’s president, suddenly announced his resignation. In a statement posted around 8pm local time, Sarkissian declared that he “decided to resign from the position as the president of the Republic of Armenia after almost four years of active work”.

While he emphasised that the decision was “entirely non-emotional and comes from a certain logic”, he repeatedly lamented his lack of policy-shaping power, stating that “the president does not have the necessary tools to influence the fundamental processes in domestic and foreign policy” and that “the president cannot influence issues related to war and peace”.

The strange wording of the statement invited speculation: Sarkissian’s words repeatedly implied that he desired greater executive power for his role, but he had known the limitations when he agreed to take up the largely ceremonial position of president in early 2018. 

The more proximate apparent impetus for his resignation, however, was to come the next day. On January 24, Armenian investigative outlet Hetq released a bombshell investigation regarding the just-departed president.

Hetq revealed that at the time of his appointment as president, Sarkissian had in fact held a second citizenship: not British (as he had previously held but renounced), but from the Caribbean island nation of Saint Kitts and Nevis. Sarkissian had not relinquished this citizenship by the time he was inaugurated as Armenia’s head of state, making him ineligible under the country’s constitution, which bars dual passport holders from the office.

Sarkissian was still abroad in the United Arab Emirates when he made the declaration, having taken a vacation there following an official visit. Were he to return to Armenia, he could now face charges for his allegedly illegal assumption of the presidency.

Diminished role

The resignation was not expected at this time, but certainly had precedent.

“Although the resignation comes as a surprise, President Sarkissian was increasingly angry over personal attacks and profoundly uncomfortable with what he saw as a diminished role in the decision-making process,” Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center, a Yerevan-based think tank, told bne IntelliNews.

“This was only exacerbated by the combination of tense personal relations and political rivalry between President Sarkissian and Prime Minister Pashinyan. And even in the more limited areas of his policy activity, such as promoting Armenia’s investment climate and seeking to improve relations with the Armenian diaspora, the president often faced obstacles from the prime minister and his cabinet,” said Giragosian.

Sarkissian and Pashinyan had a complicated relationship. The former had been the only senior member of the previous Armenian establishment to stay in his position following 2018’s ‘Velvet Revolution’ that brought the latter to power. While they had remained largely cordial for the first few years, they came into open conflict following Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 Karabakh war. Following the loss, Sarkissian repeatedly called for Pashinyan and his government to resign, while making his own trips to Moscow to meet with allies.

Following the military’s ‘coup attempt’ in February, when army generals demanded that Pashinyan step down, Sarkissian refused to sign the prime minister’s order dismissing the head of the army’s general staff (and ringleader of the demand), Onik Gasparyan. That was the last of serious ruptures between the erstwhile president and PM, but there was clearly no love lost between the two.

The revelation of Sarkissian’s Saint Kitts and Nevis citizenship and his heavy investment in the Caribbean tax haven has come as a complete shock.

“I think only Sarkissian's family members knew about the [second] citizenship,” said Samson Martirosyan, a journalist at Hetq and one of the authors of the report on Sarkissian. “It’s hard to tell whether Pashinyan personally or anyone from [the ruling party] knew, but I feel like his citizenship and investment in St. Kitts was something that should have never become public knowledge and only his closest family members knew about,” Martirosyan said.

Martirosyan says that in correspondence with Hetq, Sarkissian confirmed he received his St Kitts citizenship as a result of investing in the country. The exact amount of his investment is not yet known, but some resources put the amount needed for citizenship at a minimum of about $200,000.

Sarkissian has been an Armenian public servant in various roles all the way back to the country’s independence in 1991; not all these roles required him to forego business activities, but certainly his public salaries (Sarkissian earned about $24,000 a year as president) would not have enabled him to make such an investment.

It now appears that the ex-president, who is outside the country, may not be able to return at all.

“Our initial assessment was that he'd choose to stay in the UK after [our] investigation was published,” said Martirosyan. “We made such an assessment because when we started the correspondence he was in UAE, then his office said he was leaving on vacation due to health reasons and then he announced his resignation. This happened as we exchanged rounds of questions.

“His resignation was a surprise for us. We were not planning to publish the investigation now, but had to since he resigned,” Martirosyan added. “Yesterday [January 25], his office said he will return to Armenia, though they didn't specify when exactly. If a proper investigation is launched, I believe he will face criminal charges,” Martirosyan said.

Drawn-out voting

With Sarkissian seemingly eliminated as a political force, the question now falls as to his successor, with parliament speaker Alen Simonyan currently holding the role temporarily.

“The parliament has a short window of only five days from the resignation and then between 25-35 days to elect a new president,” explained Giragosyan. “This roughly month-long period will most likely be sufficient, and with a strong majority of seats in the parliament, the Civil Contract party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan should be able to select a viable candidate.

“The election of a new president, however, is more likely to be drawn out into two or three rounds of voting, as the pro-government majority will face a challenge from opposition deputies. As the first round of the election requires at least three quarters of votes, and three-fifths for the second round, a third round of the election, which is a simple majority vote, is most likely,” Giragosyan said.

The question of Sarkissian’s successor has already created some drama. Initial reports suggested that the government would seek another third-party candidate (as Sarkissian had been). Western diplomatic sources confirmed to bne IntelliNews that Edmon Marukyan, head of the Bright Armenia party (which had held seats in parliament from 2018-2021), had been approached by Civil Contract representatives for the post, while Armen Sargsyan, head of the Republic Party which received 3% of the vote in the 2021 election, was also being considered. At the time of writing, however, reports indicated that the ruling party had shifted towards the nomination of Arayik Harutyunyan, head of the prime minister’s office and a former education minister.

As a close Pashinyan ally, Harutyunyan’s nomination would thus not only require several rounds of confirmation votes, being almost certain to face rejection by the parliamentary opposition, but would continue a trend of the PM selecting close loyalists for key posts. There are now few checks and balances left: Pashinyan has filled all the other top constitutional posts with his allies.

Whatever the case, the next candidate is likely to have little influence on policy, like Sarkissian. Moreover, they are unlikely to seek it: The recent saga shows that the ceremonial position is not an effective avenue for making one’s mark on the country’s direction. For Sarkissian himself, meanwhile, it may be quite some time before he sets foot on Armenian soil again.