Polish GDP grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.5% y/y in the fourth quarter, easing 0.5pp against the adjusted expansion rate recorded in the third quarter, a flash estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on February 14 showed.
GDP expanded 3.1% y/y in unadjusted terms, 0.8pp below the y/y reading from Q3, GUS data also showed.
“These data do not affect our forecast of GDP growth in 2020 of 3.2%, although they pose some downward risk. In the first half of the year, we should expect a slightly lower economic growth than in Q4, as high inflation will limit growth in household consumption,” Bank Millennium said in a comment.
“The outlook for investments remains unfavourable and their acceleration in the fourth quarter may be temporary. Also the economic situation abroad, negatively affected by the spread of coronavirus, will not be conducive to economic growth,” the bank added.
In q/q terms, growth slowed to 0.2% after expanding just 1.2% in Q3.
A detailed breakdown of the flash reading – together with a possible revision of the data – is scheduled for publication on February 28.
Poland's GDP expansion came in at 5.1% in 2018, the fastest expansion since 2007. In 2017, the economy grew 4.6%.