Montenegro’s ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) is heading for its toughest general election in decades on August 30. The party usually cruises to victory, but this time around its popularity has fallen, and polls indicate it would need significant support from other parties to stay in power — if it manages to form the next government at all. 

The campaign period has been dominated by two pressing issues: the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and resultant economic crisis, and protests by members of the Serbian Orthodox Church against Montenegro’s new law on religion. 

The DPS and its leader, President Milo Djukanovic, have been in power for 31 years and until now the opposition has been unable to set aside its differences and become a serious competitor to the ruling party. This time, however, the opposition seems more united than it ever has been.

Although the DPS is still some way ahead of its competitors, the support for the party is well below the 41.4% it gained in the previous election in October 2016. A poll carried out by CEDEM in mid-August puts the support for the DPS at 35.3%, followed by For the Future of Montenegro, which comprises the main opposition Democratic Front and several other parties, with 24.7%. The Peace is Our Nation coalition would come third with 16.7%.

The three are among the eleven parties and coalitions aiming to pass the 3% threshold to enter the 81-seat parliament for the next four-year term.

The CEDEM poll also shows Montenegrin citizens’ lack of confidence in their country's institutions. Nearly 46% of respondents consider the country to be on the wrong path, while 49.6% are not happy with the DPS-led coalition government.

The poll also showed that the president (currently Djukanovic), government (currently led by Djukanovic’s right hand man, Dusko Markovic), parliament, political parties and the Montenegrin Orthodox Church are the five most distrusted institutions in the country.

Church crisis 

The DPS’ popularity has suffered as a result of the months-long crisis provoked by the adoption of the controversial law on religions at the end of 2019, which has led to protests, rallies and escalating tensions with Serbia and the Serbs living in Montenegro.

The church law, according to its critics, may strip the Serbian Orthodox Church of hundreds of religious sites in Montenegro, including medieval monasteries and churches. This has led to numerous protests in Serbia and in Montenegro. In the latest escalation, on August 23, a convoy of Serbian Orthodox Church clerics headed from Belgrade to the Jabuka monastery on the border with Montenegro in protest against the law.

It’s not only Serbians that are unhappy about the law. Two-thirds of Montenegro’s are Orthodox Christian and the main church is the Serbian Orthodox Church. A separate Montenegrin Orthodox Church was set up in 1993 but has not been recognised by other Orthodox Christian communities to date.

In the last few weeks, many Montenegrin citizens expressed their support for the Serbian Orthodox Church and their displeasure over the adoption of the Law on Freedom of Religion, as the authorities also banned liturgies and gatherings around shrines due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

The detention of several Serbian Orthodox priests who held a religious procession despite the ban on public gatherings back in May sparked protests in several cities that turned violent in Niksic.

Overall, the coronavirus pandemic has further lowered the support for the DPS due to the tough economic crisis provoked by the restrictions. 

Montenegro once looked to have won its struggle against the virus. However, after declaring the country coronavirus-free at the end of May, in June the government reported a new outbreak and is still struggling to contain it.

International influence

The last general election in 2016 attracted significant attention as a coup plot aimed at ousting the DPS was foiled on the eve of the vote. The police revealed the plot — and plans to either arrest or assassinate Djukanovic — and after a lengthy trial, dubbed the “Trial of the century” dozens of people, including two leaders of the Democratic Front and two Russians believed to be members of the Russian security services, GRU, were sentenced.

It is not clear whether Russia was behind the plot, but there was a clear motivation for Moscow to try to disrupt the election as at the time of the vote Montenegro, formerly a close ally of Moscow’s, was approaching Nato membership. Djukavocic had openly said the previous year that Russia was looking to stoke unrest in the tiny Balkan country to deter Nato from inviting Montenegro to join. 

Four years on, Montenegro is now a member of the alliance, and approaching EU accession as well. 

For the first time an opposition coalition in Montenegro has gained EU support, according to publications in local media. The European Greens have backed the In the Black and White coalition, led by the Civic Movement URA. 

Politicians from Montenegro’s immediate neighbours are, meanwhile, paying close attention to the upcoming vote. 

Ahead of the election, the foreign ministers of Albania and Kosovo called on ethnic Albanians in Montenegro to vote for the Albanian parties. Albanian Foreign Minister Gent Cekaj and his Kosovan peer Meliza Haradinaj-Stublla issued a joint statement on August 26 in which they said that the number of ethnic Albanians in the Montenegrin parliament should increase. Ethnic Albanians represent 5% of the population of Montenegro, totalling just over 600,000 people, and are currently represented by one MP in the 81-seat parliament.

While the conflict rages between the Serbian Orthodox Church and the Montenegrin government, Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic announced that his country will not interfere in Montenegro's general election in any way, but that his country will always support the Serbians living in the Adriatic country.

Phantom voters 

Meanwhile, in July an investigation by BIRN revealed that more than 50,000 suspected phantom voters would be eligible to vote in the election, giving rise to serious suspicions about possible electoral fraud. This has been denied by Podgorica. However, the International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) also insisted that the maths shows the suspicions could be true. IFIMES wrote an analysis released in August where it pointed out that the number of registered eligible voters is 541,232, while the official population is around 622,000 people.

“Hence, as the eligible voters are citizens of full age (541,232), if we add to the number of citizens of full age the number of citizens of age 0 to 18, then it appears that the population of Montenegro is almost 700,000,” IFIMES said.

It added that non-governmental organisations have detected thousands of phantom voters on the electoral roll, as well as voters who had been registered twice and deceased voters.

“Furthermore, thousands of voters will have difficulties exercising their voting right due to the unlawful decisions that had transferred them to other polling stations, as a result of what many will not be able to exercise their voting right. It was also established that in the municipalities near the border a number of persons who do not have a residence in Montenegro and should have already been removed from the electoral roll are still registered as voters,” IFIMES wrote.

On August 20, the electoral committee deleted some of the names in the electoral roll, reducing the number of eligible voters to 540,026 – still too many compared to the country’s population.