Consumer prices in Ukraine declined 0.5% in June after rising 0.7% in May. Last June, prices were flat. This brings y/y inflation down to 9.0% in June, from 9.6% in May, Sberbank CIB said in a note.
Core inflation (adjusted for regulated tariffs, fruits, vegetables, and fuel) was zero, the same as last year. Therefore, the core y/y figure stayed at 7.4% in June and May, reports VTBC.
Prices of food (down 1.1% m/m), clothes and footwear (down 3.0%) and utilities (down 1.4%) dragged the headline figure down in June.
Among food items, the prices of vegetables and eggs dropped the most, posting 14.3% and 26.7% m/m deflation, respectively.
The m/m deflation in vegetable prices was mostly due to a seasonal price decline following the harvest. Lower utilities prices were solely driven by lower natural gas tariffs (down 6.4%).
“We expect full-year inflation to slow to 8.0% this year, which is higher than the NBU's target range of 4-6% and its forecast of 6.3%,” Anton Stroutchenevski, Sberbank CIB chief economist, said in a note.