Inflation is expected to moderate in the second half of the year with the Polish Monetary Policy Council to remain dovish.
States across Central and Southeast Europe are experiencing a long-term population decline due to a combination of low birth rates and mass emigration.
Czech retail sales fell 1% month-on-month at constant prices in May after very strong growth in previous months, and marked the slowest growth in 2 years.
Economists from wiiw have revised upwards their forecasts for Central and Southeast European economies as wage-driven growth has stopped them from following the eurozone into a slowdown.
Slovakia ́s revenues from retail trade (excluding car sales) increased by 2.7 % in May year-on-year, following a 1.8% gain the previous month, recording the biggest drop in retail trade since December 2012, according to data from the Slovak Statistic
Czech industrial production surprised analysts after it increased by 3.2% year-on-year in May, driven mainly by a 7% acceleration in the automotive industry, based on data published by the Czech Statistics Office on July 8. The consensus was for a 1%
The reading marks a return to growth for the Baltic state’s industrial sector after output fell in April in what was a third fall in the previous five months.
Record-low rate results in fast-growing wages and buoyed consumer confidence, making household consumption a key driver of economic growth.
Slowing wage increases partially foreshadowed the drop, but analysts are still at a loss to explain whether the steep deceleration in retail sales growth is a blip or the start of a wider slowdown.
The total of $5.3bn from seven issues in June was the most issued in the last four years. Eastern Europe and Russia also had a good month with issues of $5.1bn and $3.2bn respectively.
The reading marks a return to expansion in Estonia’s industrial output after April’s dent ended a 33-month series of uninterrupted growth.
The indicator’s fall attests to the continuing deterioration of business conditions at Polish manufacturers, said IHS Markit which compiles the index — though industrial growth remained strong at the start of the year.
The Czech IHS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index plunged to its lowest level since July 2009, posting 45.9 in June, down from 46.6 in May
Sharp slowdown in growth since April, but consumption is expected to be an important driver of economic growth in 2019, as it was last year.
The unemployment rate in Hungary fell to 3.4% in March-May, its lowest level since independence
The slowdown was expected after sales spiked the previous month because of Easter but still is in line with Polish households’ general inclination towards increased consumption.
The headline figure is 1.5pp below the unadjusted figure recorded the preceding month but still attests to the Polish industrial sector’s stubbornness to give in to negative trends in the external environment.