Latest Updates

Turkey introduces shock rate cut with ‘Erdoganomics’ again confounding markets

Inflation at 80% and collapse of lira not enough to persuade palace administration to desist.

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For the first time, Ukraine’s western partners sent no new aid in July

The flow of new international support for Ukraine has “dried up” completely, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. There were no new promises in July of any sort of aid from the West for the first time since the war started.

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bneGREEN: Cleaning up the Western Balkans’ waste problem

Waste generation has increased sharply in recent decades, but waste management infrastructure has in general failed to keep up.

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COMMENT: Turkey moves closer to Russia, but is immune to Western sanctions

Since the war in Ukraine started Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has deftly placed himself between the two warring parties and made himself indispensable to both. Turkey hopes to increase its geopolitical clout and tap the Russian market.

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COMMENT: Ukrainian “internal displacement bonds”, an investment into kindness

Ukraine could raise billions of dollars to help the 7mn internal refugees by tapping the international capital markets with a humanitarian "internal displacement bond" – which could appeal to ESG officers and well-heeled domestic IT professionals.

Latest Updates

News

In a mysterious statement made last week, Belarus’ PM Roman Golovchenko said that Belarus’ fertiliser shipment problems will be solved “very soon.”

The European Commission has refused to reimburse the Czech state for EU aid paid to Agrofert because Andrej Babis was in a conflict of interest as finance minister and then prime minister when the aid was given.

Sanctions on Russia have stopped deliveries from the factories that traditionally supplied Kazakhstan.

Borko Stefanovic says Serbia needs to examine what refusing to align with EU policy means for the economy and EU accession process.

Government grabs unused gas storage capacity in a facility part-owned by Gazprom in order to boost the country's gas reserves before the coming winter.

Tech

Deal to accelerate SeedBlink's coverage as a pan-European player, broadening its geographic footprint in CEE and Benelux.

Online shopping has become increasingly popular in Serbia, even though the market lags behind Central and Western Europe.

Following the imposition of sanctions and the voluntary withdrawal of hundreds of international brands, Russians have turned to e-commerce sites to buy hard-to-find foreign brands.

Up to a fifth of Turks appear to have invested in digital money in the past two years.

According to a report published last week by US publication Business Insider, a range of Western tech firms are users of FindFace, a controversial face recognition technology developed by Russian startup NtechLab.

Opinion

Ukraine received some good news in the middle of August, receiving the backing of private sector bondholders to give Ukraine a 24-month debt service freeze. That helps, but Kyiv is still running a $5bn a month deficit and the West needs to help.

A July opinion poll conducted by the Levada Centre revealed that, despite the ongoing ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia, more than two-thirds of Russians believe that the country is on the "right track."

The search for alternative markets is being stepped up to secure the long-term future of the Russian gas industry. In the short-term Russia can't switch to Asia, but by the early 2030 Russia could be sending up to 126bcm to Asia.

China wants Russia to stop interfering with Kazakh oil exports.

The tightening cycle by central banks in Emerging Europe is coming to an end as regulators across the region start to get inflationary pressures under control, Capital Economics said in a note on August 8.

Data

Latvia’s unemployment rate fell slightly to 6.6% in 2Q of 2022, the Labour Force Survey published on August 16 by the country’s Central Statistical Bureau shows.

Polish GDP expansion slowed down to a seasonally adjusted 4.5% y/y in the second quarter after expanding 9.2% y/y in the preceding three months.

Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development is preparing a revised macroeconomic forecast for 2022, revising the GDP decline to 4.2% from the previously forecast 7.8% contraction -- the mildest forecast yet for this year's contraction.

Hungary’s economy expanded 6.5% y/y in Q2, according to both adjusted and raw data, slowing down from 8.2% in the previous quarter.

Governments in several counties across Emerging Europe have launched pro-natal policies where parents receive financial benefits and tax breaks for having more babies.

Features

On the second anniversary of Belarus’ 2020 presidential election, the exiled opposition announced the creation of a “United Transitional Cabinet”. But how will the exiled opposition manage to keep itself relevant?

The Central Bank of Russia published its strategy and outlook for the near term on August 12 entitled, "The main directions of monetary policy until 2025". In none of the CBR’s three strategies does the regulator see the economy recovering soon.

If the UN forges ahead with its target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, minerals will become an increasingly valuable resource. The world seeks to switch from a fuel-intensive energy system to a mineral-intensive one and copper is key.

ATF Bank started off as one of Kazakhstan's few private banks in the 1990s. By 2007, it was closing one of the biggest international deals in Kazakh banking. How did it achieve this, and could it happen again?

The war in Ukraine is starting to look like it might last a long time and that means putting the economy onto a war footing. Over the first six months of fighting running the economy has been little more than crisis management. Now it needs a plan.

Blogs

Obsessing about sports, building bridges and speaking up for China. This and more in Eurasianet’s weekly Turkmenistan briefing.

Bulgaria shifts back towards Russian orbit after reformist government toppled. Montenegro could be next.

A financial crisis has begun in Ukraine. The hryvnia is in free fall. The national bank has ordered exchange kiosks not to display the exchange rate. The government is running a deficit it can’t cover and companies are defaulting on their bonds.

Important day today. There are 17 ships in three Ukrainian ports cleared for grain shipments, of which 10 are ready to go, and it was just reported that the first one has set sail on its way to Turkey and then the rest of the world.

Didn’t I say this would happen? That Russian President Vladimir Putin would play silly buggers with the gas flow and that newswires would be buzzing with alerts for months to come.

bneGREEN

Europe’s efforts to fill its gas reserves ahead of the coming winter could come with a hefty price tag, as global LNG price have reached up to 10 times their normal levels as the continent scrambles for available cargoes.

The record increase in UK wholesale gas prices in the last three years is the prime driver of the sky-high energy bills being faced by consumers, with the country’s renewables roll-out unable to keep prices down.

Interior minister warns those who destroy Serbia’s natural heritage will be prosecuted after new environmental crime unit files hundreds of criminal reports.

Water levels are critically low in Romania, which is both a major EU grain producer and a channel to export Ukrainian grain to international markets.

Zero-carbon housing is a key battleground in combating climate change and global warming, as the residential building sector across Europe has the potential to cut fossil fuel dependency and reduce emissions.

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