Latest Updates

Analysis: Licence step puts Georgia’s TBC on verge of pioneering move into Uzbekistan’s state-dominated banking industry

Summer could see LSE-listed lender start banking operations in country riding wave of ‘Mirziyoyev’ reforms. Central Asian nation has low but rising penetration of banking products.

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TURKEY INSIGHT: The puzzle of Borsa Istanbul’s foreign-held shares boom

Stock exchange may be rallying but the data on why is just not available to investors playing these murky markets.

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TURKEY INSIGHT: How long can the Turkey ETF rally last?

No-one wants to rain on the parade, but it would be folly to ignore the “debt volcano” and a competition probe into Turkish banks launched by officials of an administration that “needs some cash”.

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OUTLOOK 2020 Georgia

Country goes into general election year after wave of street protests against deviations from democracy. There is major political uncertainty, but the economy remains surprisingly robust.

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East Asian investors ramp up investments in Central and Eastern Europe

China became the top investor in CEE in 2019, leading fellow East Asian investors that accounted for a growing share of M&A in the region. More deals are expected to follow, says a new report from law firm CMS.

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ALACO DISPATCHES: What lies behind oligarch impunity in Ukraine

Efforts to investigate financial crimes have been largely unsuccessful due to endemic corruption within the judiciary.

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MOSCOW BLOG: Is Putin a megalomaniac?

Is Russian President Vladimir Putin a megalomaniac? The reaction of the commentatori to the huge changes in Russia’s political DNA suggested by the president was kneejerk and entirely predictable.

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OUTLOOK 2020 Azerbaijan

The tectonic plates holding together Azerbaijan’s clanocracy are shifting. Economists say a massive restructuring of the economy is needed to benefit ordinary citizens.

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OUTLOOK 2020 Armenia

Growth driven by private consumption expected at around 5% in post-revolution “anti-corruption” administration’s third year. Country’s ratings improving with transition seen as success to date. Popular government may fear taking on painful reforms.

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Analysts think Turkish finance minister got “slap on wrist” after “competitive lira” remarks

Eastern EU members “failing to address corruption effectively”, finds Transparency International

Russia’s RTS spring rally pauses as investors take profits

Analysts think Turkish finance minister got “slap on wrist” after “competitive lira” remarks

“Broke the number one rule for members of the government—Don't talk about the exchange rate!” says strategist after Berat Albayrak appears to row back on comments.

Eastern EU members “failing to address corruption effectively”, finds Transparency International

Many of the newer EU member states saw their scores deteriorate on the latest Corruption Perceptions Index amid growing state capture and efforts by governments to undermine judicial independence.

Russia’s RTS spring rally pauses as investors take profits

With no new money flowing into ETFs, Russia’s spring rally paused this week as investors took profits following a strong start to the year.

News

Western Balkans countries sink on latest Corruption Perceptions Index

Poor performance on latest index from Transparency International comes after years of warnings of the risks of democratic backsliding in the region should states fail to progress towards EU accession.

Ukraine’s population falls behind Poland’s for the first time, electronic census says 5mn people lost since 2000

Ukraine’s population fell behind that of Poland for the first time as an electronic census revealed the number of citizens had fallen by some 5mn people to 37.289mn since the last census in 2000.

Immigration helps ease CEE labour crisis

The labour shortages that have threatened to limit economic expansion in Central and some parts of Southeast Europe have started to ease in some countries, with increased labour migration a contributing factor.

Ukraine’s domestic bond market off to a strong start in 2020 as yields fall below 10%

Ukraine’s domestic bond market got off to a strong start in 2020 as heavy bidding at the weekly auction on January 22 depressed yields to 10%. A year ago Ukraine bonds were yielding 19%.

President of war-hit Ukraine offers 'investment nanny, tax holidays' to potential investors

Any potential investor who invests more than $100mn in Ukraine, will get a personal "guardian" from the government, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who is at the Davos conference to talk up Ukraine’s investment case.

Western Balkans countries sink on latest Corruption Perceptions Index

2 days ago

Ukraine’s population falls behind Poland’s for the first time, electronic census says 5mn people lost since 2000

2 days ago

Immigration helps ease CEE labour crisis

2 days ago

Ukraine’s domestic bond market off to a strong start in 2020 as yields fall below 10%

2 days ago

President of war-hit Ukraine offers 'investment nanny, tax holidays' to potential investors

2 days ago

More News

Tech

Czech Republic most innovative among V4 countries

The Czech Republic improved its position in the 2020 Bloomberg Innovation Index ranking to 24th place, becoming the most innovative country among the Visegrad Four countries.

Osijek to become Croatia’s first 5G city

Osijek will become the first major city in Croatia to build a 5G network by the end of this year, and the investment is expected to have economic benefits for the eastern part of the country.

US likely to bristle at new Iran plan to put satellite in orbit

Washington accuses Iranians of using space rocket programme as cover for efforts aimed at developing nuclear payload missiles. Islamic Republic’s last launch effort ended in space centre explosion.

Hydrogen-powered drone developed in Hungary

Hungary-based Genevation Aircraft has unveiled its first hydrogen fuel cell powered aircraft developed jointly with US-based Alaka'i Technologies.

Istanbul-listed Aselsan, Kron and Logo take awards in Deloitte Technology Fast 50 ranking

37 of 50 ranked companies were active in software sector.

Czech Republic most innovative among V4 countries

1 day ago

Osijek to become Croatia’s first 5G city

2 days ago

US likely to bristle at new Iran plan to put satellite in orbit

2 days ago

Hydrogen-powered drone developed in Hungary

3 days ago

Istanbul-listed Aselsan, Kron and Logo take awards in Deloitte Technology Fast 50 ranking

5 days ago

More Tech

Opinion

ING: Russian industry hoping for a better 2020

Even though overall industrial production growth softened in 2019, some investment-driven sectors outperformed, including those focused on agriculture, oil downstream, chemicals, construction and transportation.

ING THINK: Russia tempted to ease fiscal rule and spend more

Russia entered 2020 with a spending backlog of around 1% of GDP, which the new cabinet may now start unwinding. With the budget breakeven oil price below $50/bbl there is some space to increase spending.

ING: Russian balance of payments calls for caution over RUB

Balance of payments for 4Q19 suggests weakness in the current account and tells us that as much as $25bn of net portfolio inflows into local currency state bonds (OFZ) may be needed in 2020 in order to avoid ruble depreciation.

ING: Hungarian inflation jumps to 4% in December

Hungary's headline inflation rose remarkably in December, as expected, mainly on the back of energy prices. But what's more important is that core inflation slowed somewhat, so we see the central bank remaining calm.

ING: Romanian year-end inflation above target band at 4%

At 4.0% y/y, December inflation came in slightly above our 3.9% forecast and market consensus. We believe that this will be the peak for many months to come.

ING: Russian industry hoping for a better 2020

1 day ago

ING THINK: Russia tempted to ease fiscal rule and spend more

4 days ago

ING: Russian balance of payments calls for caution over RUB

5 days ago

ING: Hungarian inflation jumps to 4% in December

10 days ago

ING: Romanian year-end inflation above target band at 4%

10 days ago

More Opinion

Data

Hungarian forint slips to all-time low against the euro

The Hungarian forint is amongst the worst-performing currencies this year, and its depreciation is forecast to continue thanks to the central bank’s dovish policies.

Russia’s industrial output grew 2.1% on the year in 2019 and 8.9% on the month in December

Russia’s industrial output grew 2.1% on the year and 8.9% on the month in December after rising 0.3% on the year in November

Polish retail sales accelerate growth in December

The expansion in December is hardly a surprise even if it fell slightly short of consensus. Poles’ robust consumer spending is driven by the good situation on the labour market, growing wages in particular.

Russia's Watcom shopping index ends 2019 on five-year high as consumption recovers

The Watcom shopping index finished 2019 on a high note, putting in its best result in five years after under-performing for almost the whole year.

Ukraine’s retail sales up 10.5% in 2019

Ukraine’s retail sales grew by a healthy 10.5% y/y in real terms in 2019, accelerating from from 5.8% y/y in 2018, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on January 21.

Hungarian forint slips to all-time low against the euro

1 day ago

Russia’s industrial output grew 2.1% on the year in 2019 and 8.9% on the month in December

1 day ago

Polish retail sales accelerate growth in December

2 days ago

Russia's Watcom shopping index ends 2019 on five-year high as consumption recovers

2 days ago

Ukraine’s retail sales up 10.5% in 2019

3 days ago

More Data

Features

INTERVIEW: Ukraine gas tariffs stay low, energy sector outlook improves

After signing off on a new gas transit deal in the last days of last year, Ukrainian authorities backed off their threat to more than triple gas tariffs for domestic producers in an effort to keep the pipeline system from going bankrupt.

Putin calls for constitutional changes to shift power to Duma during his state of the nation speech

Russian President Vladimir Putin called for changes to the constitution that would shift power to the Duma, the Russian parliament, as well as imposing some new limits to the president’s power, during his annual state of the nation speech.

OUTLOOK 2020 Kyrgyzstan

Recovered gold output to keep GDP growth at 4%. Russia's economic fate, anaemic job creation, stagnating poverty reduction and climate change are worries. No sign of political war between camps of president and on-trial predecessor flaring up again.

TURKEY INSIGHT: “Liquidity trumps geopolitics” as Borsa Istanbul breaks consecutive records

IIF sees capital markets awash in abundant central bank liquidity and disconnect from political risk. Catalyst for Turkish equity outperformance is banks’ upbeat forecasts. But lenders fear the regime, their views seem “Panglossian” says analyst.

OUTLOOK 2020 Belarus

A row with Russia that saw Belarus' oil supplies cut off caught the headlines but the bigger problem the country faces is its demographic trends. The government wants to boost technological industries and increase diversification.

INTERVIEW: Ukraine gas tariffs stay low, energy sector outlook improves

4 days ago

Putin calls for constitutional changes to shift power to Duma during his state of the nation speech

10 days ago

OUTLOOK 2020 Kyrgyzstan

11 days ago

TURKEY INSIGHT: “Liquidity trumps geopolitics” as Borsa Istanbul breaks consecutive records

12 days ago

OUTLOOK 2020 Belarus

12 days ago

More Features

Blogs

MOSCOW BLOG: The life of a beekeeper

Yuri Luzhkov was mayor of Moscow for nearly two decades and presided over the total transformation of the Russian capital.

BALKAN BLOG: North Macedonia’s ex-chief special prosecutor on trial

She was appointed to head investigations into top-level crime and corruption but now Katica Janeva is now on trial herself, accused of taking part in an operation to extort €1.5mn from one of North Macedonia's richest men.

BUCHAREST BLOG: New faces, new policies, but the same old uncertainty

Romania’s new government is preparing to undo some of the measures taken by its predecessors that dismayed investors, but with a shaky majority and elections already looming the scope for improvements is limited.

ISTANBUL BLOG: Funny my arse

Trump comes up with a lame Turkey pun. Erdogan comes up with F-16 warplanes in the skies of Ankara as target practice for his newly acquired Kremlin missiles.

CONFERENCE CALL: UzInvest Forum talks tech

Uzbekistan is a youthful country with a reported 60% of the population under the age of 30. The younger generation, which has only known digital technology, is moving into the tech sector with gusto.

MOSCOW BLOG: The life of a beekeeper

1 month ago

BALKAN BLOG: North Macedonia’s ex-chief special prosecutor on trial

1 month ago

BUCHAREST BLOG: New faces, new policies, but the same old uncertainty

1 month ago

ISTANBUL BLOG: Funny my arse

1 month ago

CONFERENCE CALL: UzInvest Forum talks tech

1 month ago

More Blogs

Latest Updates

News

Poor performance on latest index from Transparency International comes after years of warnings of the risks of democratic backsliding in the region should states fail to progress towards EU accession.

Ukraine’s population fell behind that of Poland for the first time as an electronic census revealed the number of citizens had fallen by some 5mn people to 37.289mn since the last census in 2000.

The labour shortages that have threatened to limit economic expansion in Central and some parts of Southeast Europe have started to ease in some countries, with increased labour migration a contributing factor.

Ukraine’s domestic bond market got off to a strong start in 2020 as heavy bidding at the weekly auction on January 22 depressed yields to 10%. A year ago Ukraine bonds were yielding 19%.

Any potential investor who invests more than $100mn in Ukraine, will get a personal "guardian" from the government, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who is at the Davos conference to talk up Ukraine’s investment case.

Tech

The Czech Republic improved its position in the 2020 Bloomberg Innovation Index ranking to 24th place, becoming the most innovative country among the Visegrad Four countries.

Osijek will become the first major city in Croatia to build a 5G network by the end of this year, and the investment is expected to have economic benefits for the eastern part of the country.

Washington accuses Iranians of using space rocket programme as cover for efforts aimed at developing nuclear payload missiles. Islamic Republic’s last launch effort ended in space centre explosion.

Hungary-based Genevation Aircraft has unveiled its first hydrogen fuel cell powered aircraft developed jointly with US-based Alaka'i Technologies.

37 of 50 ranked companies were active in software sector.

Opinion

Even though overall industrial production growth softened in 2019, some investment-driven sectors outperformed, including those focused on agriculture, oil downstream, chemicals, construction and transportation.

Russia entered 2020 with a spending backlog of around 1% of GDP, which the new cabinet may now start unwinding. With the budget breakeven oil price below $50/bbl there is some space to increase spending.

Balance of payments for 4Q19 suggests weakness in the current account and tells us that as much as $25bn of net portfolio inflows into local currency state bonds (OFZ) may be needed in 2020 in order to avoid ruble depreciation.

Hungary's headline inflation rose remarkably in December, as expected, mainly on the back of energy prices. But what's more important is that core inflation slowed somewhat, so we see the central bank remaining calm.

At 4.0% y/y, December inflation came in slightly above our 3.9% forecast and market consensus. We believe that this will be the peak for many months to come.

Data

The Hungarian forint is amongst the worst-performing currencies this year, and its depreciation is forecast to continue thanks to the central bank’s dovish policies.

Russia’s industrial output grew 2.1% on the year and 8.9% on the month in December after rising 0.3% on the year in November

The expansion in December is hardly a surprise even if it fell slightly short of consensus. Poles’ robust consumer spending is driven by the good situation on the labour market, growing wages in particular.

The Watcom shopping index finished 2019 on a high note, putting in its best result in five years after under-performing for almost the whole year.

Ukraine’s retail sales grew by a healthy 10.5% y/y in real terms in 2019, accelerating from from 5.8% y/y in 2018, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on January 21.

Features

After signing off on a new gas transit deal in the last days of last year, Ukrainian authorities backed off their threat to more than triple gas tariffs for domestic producers in an effort to keep the pipeline system from going bankrupt.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called for changes to the constitution that would shift power to the Duma, the Russian parliament, as well as imposing some new limits to the president’s power, during his annual state of the nation speech.

Recovered gold output to keep GDP growth at 4%. Russia's economic fate, anaemic job creation, stagnating poverty reduction and climate change are worries. No sign of political war between camps of president and on-trial predecessor flaring up again.

IIF sees capital markets awash in abundant central bank liquidity and disconnect from political risk. Catalyst for Turkish equity outperformance is banks’ upbeat forecasts. But lenders fear the regime, their views seem “Panglossian” says analyst.

A row with Russia that saw Belarus' oil supplies cut off caught the headlines but the bigger problem the country faces is its demographic trends. The government wants to boost technological industries and increase diversification.

Blogs

Yuri Luzhkov was mayor of Moscow for nearly two decades and presided over the total transformation of the Russian capital.

She was appointed to head investigations into top-level crime and corruption but now Katica Janeva is now on trial herself, accused of taking part in an operation to extort €1.5mn from one of North Macedonia's richest men.

Romania’s new government is preparing to undo some of the measures taken by its predecessors that dismayed investors, but with a shaky majority and elections already looming the scope for improvements is limited.

Trump comes up with a lame Turkey pun. Erdogan comes up with F-16 warplanes in the skies of Ankara as target practice for his newly acquired Kremlin missiles.

Uzbekistan is a youthful country with a reported 60% of the population under the age of 30. The younger generation, which has only known digital technology, is moving into the tech sector with gusto.

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