bne Sino-CIS List

Executive Summary:
This is bne's Sino-CIS newsletter, a list of the top stories covering the growing ties between the countries of the CIS and Asia. To manage your delivery options: click here:
Stories in this Dispatch:
    SCL TOP STORY
  1. China opens $10bn CEE infrastructure fund
  2. UkrLandFarming signs $4bn investment deal with Chinese giant
  3. China targets Croatian port as regional gateway
  4. Turkey and China sign nuclear agreement
    SCL NEWS
  1. China imports Ukrainian corn for 1st time
  2. Chinese official expects bank and agro deals during Hungarian visit
  3. Prosecutor General's Office to inspect Rosneft's and Transneft's discount for China potential USD 3bn loss for Russia is claimed
  4. Poland and China talk of trade boost; little investment action
    SCL EURASIA
  1. Talks to start on controversial China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway
  2. China willing to support China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway construction
    SCL MONGOLIA
  1. Mongolia submits new securities law to parliament
  2. Mongolia: MMC to sell thermal coal to China Datang
  3. Mongolian volumes on MSE building but still tiny
1. China opens $10bn CEE infrastructure fund
bne
April 27, 2012

Beijing plans to open a $10bn credit line dedicated to supporting joint projects in infrastructure, high-tech and green energy in CEE, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on April 26, as a flock of regional leaders travelled to Warsaw to meet with him. The Asian country also promised to redress the imbalance in trade between his country and the region as part of a plan to boost total volume to $100bn by 2015.

The leaders of 15 CEE countries came to the Polish capital attracted by China's massive reserves, which total over $3 trillion. Wen responded by announcing Beijing is to launch a dedicated fund for projects in CEE. The new fund, which will be seeded with $500m initially, will offer loans on favourable terms to infrastructure and other joint projects, the Chinese premier said, according to AP.

That doesn't sound terribly different from the current relationship, in which Chinese companies - financed by state banks at home - have been pushing on price to win state contracts in CEE. Whilst Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his hosting committee won't have mentioned it, that's a sensitive issue in Poland right now, with one of the country's major road projects for the Euro 2012 football championships to miss its deadline after a cheap Chinese contract had to be scrapped.

However, Warsaw also faces a huge task to develop its power sector infrastructure in particular, and is reported to be hoping China will help finance that drive.

Speaking at an economic forum, Wen also pledged to open the Chinese market to goods from Poland and from Central Europe to balance trade, which he said could build to $100bn by the end of 2014. "China will work with countries in Central and Eastern Europe to mutually open the markets and to increase the trade exchange to $100 billion before 2015," Wen said, adding: "The Chinese side understands concerns among eastern European countries over trade imbalances and will boost imports from those countries," according to Reuters.

China, which has been campaigning to reduce the role of the US dollar as a global currency in recent years, will also seek to seal currency swap agreements and conduct trade settlements in local currencies within CEE, Wen said.

The Chinese premier ends a week-long tour of Europe in Poland, after visiting Germany, Iceland and Sweden. He will be followed by other senior officials from Beijing next week, with Moscow, BUdapest and Brussels on the itinerary, with China apparently sensing that now is the time to leverage its advantages.

The Asian country has long seen CEE as a bridgehead into the wider EU, with Western European markets still its biggest trade and investment partner. However, administrative and other barriers to Beijing's financial muscle persist. It has been pushing for these to be dropped, and for it to be granted a larger say in the global financial system - for instance via the weight of its representation in international institutions such as the IMF - in return for helping to shore up the struggling Eurozone.
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2. UkrLandFarming signs $4bn investment deal with Chinese giant
Graham Stack in Kyiv
April 11, 2012


UkrLandFarming has signed a memorandum of cooperation with China's CAMC Engineering Co. for up to $4bn in investment to boost production of meat, sugar and agricultural machinery in Ukraine, Chinese media reported on April 9. The deal will be the largest ever investment in Ukraine's agriculture sector, should it go through.

The current plan will see CAMC, a subsidiary of machinery giant Sinomach, pump the huge investment into new grain storage facilities, pork and poultry production, a sugar refinery upgrade, and a joint venture for assembly of agricultural machinery. Financial support will come from China's state-owned Export-Import Bank of China, which plays a leading role in Beijing's drive to increase Chinese activity across the globe via massive volumes of cheap funding for the country's companies, as well as foreign governments.

UkrLandFarming, which is controlled by oligarch Oleg Bakhtmatyuk, wants Sinomach as a strategic partner in its upgrade plans, reports Kommersant-Ukraine, but doesn't plan to sell a the Chinese a stake in the company itself. News of the deal was circulated by Chinese media on April 9, but there has been no official confirmation from Bakhmatyuk's structures yet.

Rumours of large Chinese investment in Ukraine's promising agricultural sector have been doing the rounds for months, and the deal if it comes to fruition would be the largest ever foreign investment in Ukrainian agriculture.

Bakhmatyuk is one of a clutch of Ukrainian oligarchs who made their fortune in gas trading - he was deputy head of Ukraine's state gas company Naftogaz as a thirty year old - but he quickly saw that agriculture offered more upside than the lucrative but dodgy schemes prevalent in the country's murky gas sector.

Therefore, he put his cash pile to work to buy up agro companies throughout Ukraine, cornering the egg market in the process through Avangard, which carried out a successful IPO in London in 2010. Bakhmatyuk appeared to have similar plans for grain producer Ukrlandfarming but transferred his stake in Avangard in late 2011 to merge the two companies instead.

Analysts at Art Capital suggest the potential deal illustrates the oligarch's grand ambition and vision as he looks to leverage his companies' role in the growing global agriculture story. "In effect,: they write in a note, "the contract signed shows that he (Bakhmatyuk) thinks and runs his business in a way that surpasses the scope of his companies and includes the whole of Ukraine and its role in the global food supply. We believe this catalyst to have so far been overlooked by the market but that it is soon to become a major driver behind the Avangard stock."




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3. China targets Croatian port as regional gateway
bne
April 24, 2012


State-owned China Ocean Shipping Company (Cosco) is in talks over investing in Croatia's Adriatic port of Rijeka and building a rail link to Hungary, as it seeks a gateway to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the two sides said after meetings in Zagreb on April 23.

Cosco executives met with Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic to present their plans for the CEE region, which is coming into sharper focus for Chinese businesses, with a special emphasis on the role that could be played by Rijeka, the government said in a statement.

Cosco chairman Wei Jiafu told national radio station HR1 that the company is interested in acquiring a concession to manage the facility, AFP reports. The company said it hopes Rijeka could serve as China's main link with CEE and significantly shorten transport time for Chinese products destined for the region.

With fixed investment of up to €4bn on the table in what would be China's first investment in Croatia, Milanovic is understandably keen to finalise the deal, and he promised to cut red tape to push it through. "So far there was a lot of talk, now is the right time to put them into action," he said in a statement.

Beijing launched a major investment offensive in Europe this week as it moves to press home the advantage of having massive foreign reserves at the same time as the Eurozone struggles with the debt crisis. The International Monetary Fund has been hoping China will commit some of its $3.2 trillion cash pile to its bailout funds, but Beijing is holding back as it seeks concessions on issues such as its role in international financial institutions and trade barriers.

Many of the CEE region's struggling economies would also heartily welcome a slice of that Chinese cash to be invested in projects in their countries, or to help squeeze debt yields. For its part, China has long seen the less developed CEE countries as a bridgehead into the wider EU. Discussion of a first Chinese investment in Croatia comes just four months after Zagreb signed the final documents to become the bloc's 28th member in 2013.

This week, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is on a tour that will take in Iceland, Germany, Sweden and Poland, and he is expected to announce news on his country's investment strategy for Europe. Wen is set to meet with the leaders of several CEE countries and attend the China-Central and Eastern European Countries Economic and Trade Forum whilst in Poland. Vice Premier Li Keqiang will follow the week after with visits to Russia, Hungary and Brussels.

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Song Tao was in Budapest earlier in April at the opening of a second branch of the Bank of China, and reiterated Beijing's interest in CEE, reports Xinhua. The official said China's relations with the countries in the region can be "an area of growth in China-Europe cooperation as a whole."

Cosco's planned enlargement of Rijeka's port is estimated at €500m-€1bn, Transport Minister Sinisa Hajdas Doncic told HR1. The official added that Cosco is also interested in a railway linking the port via Zagreb with the Hungarian border. The link would require investment of some €3bn, he suggested.

Like many in CEE, Croatia's recently appointed government faces severe economic challenges and the need for structural reform. After peaking at over €4.2bn in 2008 as the end of the global boom met the EU convergence story, foreign direct investment hit a 15-year nadir in 2010 with just over €200m in total.

At the same time, reinvigoration of the country's port infrastructure remains a huge headache after decades of neglect, although in partnership with the World Bank the government had started a piecemeal upgrade of Rijeka in a bid to make it a CEE gateway in 2003. Zagreb is also punting its shipyards to foreign investors after a privatization plan to sell them to a domestic investor failed for three of the four on the table recently. Croatian daily Jutarnji list reported in early April that China's Jiangsu Nordic Investment Management is close to a deal over Rijeka's 3. Maj yard.






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4. Turkey and China sign nuclear agreement
bne
April 10, 2012


Turkey and China signed nuclear energy and investment deals during an official visit by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Beijing on April 9. The success of the first visit by a Turkish prime minister to China in 27 years illustrates the growing relationship between the two countries.

Wen and Erdogan signed six agreements, including two agreements on cooperation in nuclear energy. A declaration of intent to promote and protect investment between the two countries and deals in publishing and broadcasting were also inked, as well as a promise to build a pair of cultural center on one anothers soil.

Details of the nuclear agreements were not offered. One is a letter of intent between Chinas National Energy Administration and the Turkish Energy Ministry for further nuclear cooperation, reports Hurriyet. The second is entitled a Cooperation Agreement on the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Power.

Turkey, which does not currently have nuclear power capacity on its soil, has been hunting a partner for the second of three planned plants it aims to build by 2023, after signing up with Russia's Rosatom to build the first at Akkuyu, near the Mediterranean coast. The second plant will be in the province of Sinop on the Black Sea. Russia, Japan and South Korea are vying with China for the contract to build it, but the Financial Times reported on April 8 that Beijing has leapt into the lead because it is not demanding guarantees from Ankara.

Turkey originally signed up with Japan to build the project in 2010, but the deal was suspended in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Intense negotiations were also held with South Korea, but fell apart because of disagreements on state guarantees in particular. They dont have a financing problem. If they agree they will build it, an unnamed Turkish energy official told the newspaper.

China National Nuclear Corporation and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation have been pushing their credentials as global nuclear suppliers, although Pakistan is the only overseas state to have contracted China to build a plant. Although China is the worlds biggest builder of new nuclear reactors, there is still uncertainty over the relative newcomer's technology, particularly since the Fukushima disaster.

Russia, with an extremely long nuclear track record, has also been pushing its role as a global provider. Rosatom is set to start building Turkey's first NPP in 2013. The government will decide on a tender for the second nuclear power plant in two months, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yldz said on April 8.
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5. China imports Ukrainian corn for 1st time
China Daily
9 April 2012

China, the world's largest corn consumer, has recently started grain imports from Ukraine, with the first shipment of 50,000 metric tons of Ukrainian corn and wheat already on its way to the nation.

This is the first time China has imported corn from the Eastern European nation, with the amount expected to reach between 1 million and 1.5 million tons within the next three years.

Analysts said corn from Ukraine could help reduce the nation's reliance on imports from the United States.

In 2011, China imported 1.75 million tons of corn, compared with 1.57 million tons in 2010, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

Official data also showed that corn imports during the first two months of this year registered a staggering increase to 1.3 million tons, almost the total annual amount in previous years. Industry analysts estimate this year's imports at between 3 million and 4 million tons. Most of China's current corn imports come from the US.

Oleg Bakhmatyuk, chairman of the board of Ukrlandfarming Plc, the largest Ukrainian agro-industrial company, said it is "quite possible" that China will import 1 million to 1.5 million tons of Ukrainian corn over the next three years.

The company is the owner of the largest land bank in Ukraine, totaling almost 500,000 hectares, and has a storage capacity of more than 1 million tons.

In 2010, it produced about 3 percent of Ukraine's grain, and 8.6 percent of its sugar.

Analysts said the Chinese market would welcome Ukrainian corn, given its lower price than US corn and the fact that it is not genetically modified.

"Its lower price would be particularly attractive to Chinese processing factories," which accounted for more than 25 percent of China's corn consumption in recent years, said Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd, one of the largest consultancies in the industry.

In the meantime, as agricultural trade plays an increasingly important role in balancing China-US trade, "large State-owned companies will continue importing from the US because of political reasons", Ma added.

Bakhmatyuk, citing industry forecasts, said China's corn imports were expected to surge to 10 million to 15 million tons over the next five to seven years, which means "an attractive market for Ukrainian corn".

But Chinese agricultural experts believe this figure exaggerates the demand by overlooking the government's efforts to boost corn production.

"China's corn production has been stagnant for the last few years. That's why surging demand has recently driven up the import volume at such an alarming pace," said Zhang Shihuang, professor of the Institute of Crop Science at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

Governments at all levels, especially those in China's major food growing areas, have implemented measures to expand cornfield acreages in recent years, which was likely to boost production, he said.

"Even in the worst scenario, China's corn imports over the next five years will stay below 5 million tons," Zhang added.

China signed an agreement in March to import 4 million tons of corn from Argentina.



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6. Chinese official expects bank and agro deals during Hungarian visit
bne
April 23, 2012

Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang expects to sign cooperative agreements in the finance sector, cooperation between small and medium-sized enterprises, and agricultural technology when he travels to Hungary in early May.

Li will visit Russia, Belgium and European Union headquarters in Brussels as well as Budapest between April 30 and May 4, shortly after his boss Premier Wen Jiabao returns from a trip that takes in Iceland, Germany, Sweden and Poland. He is widely expected to announce Beijing's latest investment strategy for CEE markets.

With many countries hoping to attract a small chunk of China's massive sovereign reserves to invest in their debt especially, and Brussels and the IMF pressing for a commitment from Beijing to support the Eurozone's bailout funds, the expectation is that China will be pushing for EU and individual countries to lower trade and investment barriers.

Budapest has been a little over keen to grab a slice of Chinese cash as it has been hammered by the markets in recent months, with several officials having claimed that the Asian giant was ready to spend €1bn in Hungarian bonds. Speculation that a Chinese airline was ready to buy now-collapsed flag carrier Malev, and Beijing was to build a direct railway line from Budapest to Ferihegy International Airport was also encouraged.

Last week, Erno Gero, president of the Hungarian-Chinese Chamber of Economy sought to pull Prime Minister Viktor Orban out of that fix by claiming that these were "partly false plans and partly misinterpreted plans and intentions," reports portfolio.hu. "[S]everal people misunderstood the prime minister's statement", Gero claimed.

Following a small purchase of Hungarian debt in spring 2011, Orban announced Beijing had made funding pledges which amounted to a "historic" deal, and "guaranteed" Hungary's finances in the medium term.

Wen told the BBC following a visit to Budapest in June 2011: "We reached agreement on the Chinese government buying a certain amount of government bonds on the Hungarian side ... that is China lending a helping hand to Hungary at a time when that country is in difficulty."

However, China is clearly ready to invest in Hungary in certain sectors, as part of its wider strategy to use CEE markets to help it gain access into EU markets further west. The construction and banking sectors are at the forefront of this push.

In late March, the Bank of China (BOC) opened its second branch in Budapest, admitting that it is developing its Hungarian business as a bridgehead to the rest of CEE and beyond. BOC Vice President Yue Yi also claimed it showed China has faith in Hungary's economy, and that the bank will expand its presence across the region when the time is ripe.

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7. Prosecutor General's Office to inspect Rosneft's and Transneft's discount for China potential USD 3bn loss for Russia is claimed
VTB Capital
12 April 2012


News: According to Vedomosti, the Prosecutor General's Office has started investigating whether any laws were broken when the Rosneft and Transneft contract with China was revised. The Russian companies have recently agreed to provide a USD 1.5/bbl discount to China. The paper speculates that the discount might result in total loss of around USD 3bn for Russia. The original contract was signed in 2009 and assumed the export of 300mmt of crude in 2011

30.

Our View: The negotiations between Rosneft, Transneft and China have been tough and ultimately required the participation of government representatives.

Therefore, we do not expect there to be any new amendments to the agreement.

The discount has already been priced in by the market, so the news is neutral for Rosneft, in our view.

Dmitry Loukashov
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8. Poland and China talk of trade boost; little investment action
bne
April 26, 2012

China hopes to double bilateral trade with Poland over the next five years, Premier Wen Jiabao said on April 25 following a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Arriving in the last country he will visit in a whirlwind European tour that has also taken in Germany, Sweden and Iceland, Wen leads a large retinue of business-leaders and investors. Clearly sensing the time is right to try to leverage the most out of the debt crisis, Beijing has launched a major campaign across Europe, with CEE - as ever - viewed as a bridgehead to the whole EU.

However, expectations of major announcements on investment strategy for the region from the Chinese have yet to appear. Indeed, the large contingent has announced very few deals at all during the junket.

Wen told reporters that China wants to hold regular head-of-government meetings with Poland, and to double the trade exchange over the next five years, reports Bloomberg. Mutual trade was just below €15bn in 2011, although there is little balance in the relationship. Over €13bn of the total was made up of Chinese exports.

The Chinese premier illustrated he knows which buttons to press in Warsaw when it comes to investment, promising that a special area of cooperation could be shale gas extraction. Tusk is at the forefront of an almost desperate Polish push to develop its unconventional gas resources to reduce reliance on imports from Russia.

However, few concrete deals have been sealed yet during Wen's trip, and the best to emerge in Warsaw so far is that Poland's Economy Development Agency signed a letter of intent with the Bank of China.
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9. Talks to start on controversial China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway
bne
April 12, 2012

Kyrgyzstan is to start talks with China on a planned railway from China across Central Asia this month. But the issue is a controversial one in Kyrgyzstan, with politicians already saying that Bishkek must not give up its natural resources in return for the railway.

The planned railway would run from the Chinese border town of Kashgar across south Kyrgyzstan to Kara-Suu, a major trading centre and the site of one of Kyrgyzstans largest retail and wholesale bazaars, on the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border. From Kara-Suu, the line would link up with the existing Fergana Valley railways, most of which are on the Uzbek side of the border.

In terms of infrastructure it would be a big boost for trading in the two Central Asian countries, which are currently only connected by rail to the north through the imperial Russian rail network, which runs through Kazakhstan to Russia. China accounts for the lions share of imports, especially consumer goods, to both countries, and is an increasingly important consumer of their exports. The line would also provide a direct rail link between the GM Uzbekistan car factory in the Fergana Valley town of Asaka to the Chinese market.

Almost all Kyrgyzstans freight goes by road, since the rail network it inherited from the Soviet Union consisted of one line from Kazakhstans rail network via Bishkek to the run down industrial town of Balykchy on Lake Issyk-Kul.

The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan line has been under discussion for several years. It was first proposed under Kyrgyzstans first President Askar Akayev back in 1996, and his successor Kurmanbek Bakiyev also explored the idea but without any concrete progress.

The few round of talks, due to start towards the end of April, could at last lead to the go-ahead for a feasibility study. Officials will also discuss technical standards for the railway. After the study is completed, negotiations on funding for the line, which is likely to cost at least $2bn, would begin.

Funding for the railway has been the biggest stumbling block in Bishkek, since Kyrgyzstan is urgently in need of money to rebuild its dilapidated transport and energy infrastructure. Several large hydropower investments, including the Kambarata HPP, are being funded by Russia and to a lesser extent Kazakhstan.

However, with anti-Chinese sentiment growing in Kyrgyzstan, any deal that would involve conceding Kyrgyz territory or natural resources to Beijing would probably be politically unacceptable. In an interview with newswire KryTAG, Deputy Prime Minister Dzhoomart Otorbayev was forced to deny rumours that the government was planning to give China 23 resource deposits and 40% of its glaciers in exchange for building the railway.

The Kyrgyz government is now exploring the idea of setting up a commercial joint venture to generate income from the railways property in order to repay investors, both Otorbayev and Kyrgyz Temir Jolu head Kanat Abdikerimov have said, although it is not clear how this would work in practice. The Kyrgyz expert group is considering a variety of concessional agreements on the private and state capital in this project with China," Abdikerimov told Trend newswire.
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10. China willing to support China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway construction
bne
April 24, 2012

Beijing is willing to support Kyrgyzstans construction of its section of the planned China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway.

The Kyrgyzstani government announced that China would be willing to support construction of the railway and other infrastructure projects, on April 23, following meetings between Kyrgyz and Chinese officials.

The planned railway would run from the Chinese border town of Kashgar across south Kyrgyzstan to Kara-Suu, a major trading centre and the site of one of Kyrgyzstans largest retail and wholesale bazaars, on the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border. From Kara-Suu, the line would link up with the existing Fergana Valley railways, most of which are on the Uzbek side of the border.

While it would be a boost for trading for the two Central Asian countries, popular opinion in Kyrgyzstan is against the project because of concerns of increased Chinese influence within the country if it is funded by Beijing.

Earlier this month, Deputy Prime Minister Dzhoomart Otorbayev was forced to deny rumours that the government was planning to give China 23 resource deposits and 40% of its glaciers in exchange for building the railway.
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11. Mongolia submits new securities law to parliament
Frontier Securities
4 April 2012

According to Government of Mongolia on April 4,2012(http://open-government.mn/read-1383-.html) Cabinet Meeting today has discussed and supported updated version of Law on Securities Market and decided to submit it to Parliament reflecting opinions of the Members of the Cabinet.

The bill has been prepared to in order to
• Comply securities market to direction of development
• Clearly regulate activities of securities market participants, make their activities transparent
• Protect interest of public and investors
• Improve effects of state regulation, supervision and inspection

During Cabinet Meeting Prime Minister of Mongolia S.Batbold has stressed and reminded

• It is important to establish new economic mentality, attitude and culture and establish fundamental condition of having minimum mistakes from the beginning

Market capitalization is growing every year and as of February 2011 was 3.21 trillion MNT( today, April 4,2012 MSE market cap is 1.96 trillion MNT- Frontier Securities)

Currently there are 88 brokerage and dealing companies.

Frontier Securities conclusion:

Approval of Securities Market Law will be one of High level milestones in the development of MSE and Mongolian capital markets in general and that also include:

Market education and performance of trained market participants
Performance of technology roll out and MSE organization
Performance of SGF and investor protection after move to T+3 and international risk management
Impact on corporate governance and transparency after development of new listing rules
TT listing in 2012
Remote access for international brokers after introduction of membership rules
Approval of SECURITIES MARKET LAW Submitted to the Ministry of Justice on September 01, 2011
Custody services and enablement of set-up of custodians
Reduction of fees will make the market more attractive to international brokers, support the local brokers and help create increase liquidity
Successful target by MSE of state privatizations, New Domestics, Repatriations, New Licenses, Developing companies and Foreign Listings



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12. Mongolia: MMC to sell thermal coal to China Datang
Visor Capital
April 10, 2012

Impact: NEUTRAL

Facts/News. Mongolian Mining Corporation (MMC) yesterday announced that its subsidiary Energy Resources LLC entered into a long term cooperation agreement with China Datang Overseas Investment Co. The Company has agreed to supply the thermal coal produced as a secondary product from the processing of coking coal, also known as a middling, to Datang for a period of ten years. The thermal coal sales volumes will range between 0.5mt and 2mt per annum, depending on the availability of the product. The selling price will be determined based on market price.

Analysis. We forecast MMC to produce 11.7mt of raw coking coal in 2012F. We believe that MMC will successfully reach 20mtpa of raw coal production beyond 2015F, in line with our expectations. We consider this agreement to be a sign of high demand for the Companys products in China, which will support growth of its clients base. However, as thermal coal is usually sold at a significant discount to coking coal, we do not expect significant contribution from its sales to the Companys revenues.

Valuation/Conclusion. For the 2012F and 2013F financial years, the stock is trading at a PE of 14.1x and 7.8x, while in terms of EV/EBITDA the stock trades at 9.9x and 5.3x, respectively (which is a significant discount to its Mongolian peers). We expect no significant share impact from the announcement.

Stanislav Chuyev
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13. Mongolian volumes on MSE building but still tiny
Eurasia Capital
4 April 2012

January 2012 stock turnover was 4.7 billion MNT(3.5 million USD using todays Bank of Mongolia reference rate) compared to 2011 December stocks turnover of 8.9B MNT

Average daily turnover in January 2012 was 214 million MNT ( 160690USD using Bank of Mongolias todays reference rate) compared to Decembers 429 million MNT

23681 brokerage accounts opened in January 2012 compared to 16681 brokerage accounts opened in December 2011

most liquid stocks in January 2012 were GTB destination resort developer Genco Tour Bureau with a volume of 2 million shares and a loss mom of 2MNT and concrete producer RMC with 1.11 million shares and loss of 10MNT mom

top loser liquid stocks with relatively large volume were internet portal OLLOO (OLL) with volume of 229 thousand shares and decline of 29% and steel structures manufacturer Khukh Gan (HGN) with volume of 131 thousand shares and decline of 9.5%

MSE has been best performing stock market in the world in 2010 with growth of over 130% and despite recent downturn still managed to be the second best performing stock market in the world in 2011 with 47% growth after Venezuelas Caracas Stock Exchange. However, liquidity is still tiny.

We do expect, however, that that best performance trend will continue and MSE will be one of the best performers in 2012 as well.As a result of MSE reforms, we expect market cap and daily equity average turnover consistently and substantially increase in 2012, however gradually.



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